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Tropical Storm Eugene Discussion Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP062023
300 PM MDT Sat Aug 05 2023
 
This afternoon's satellite presentation of the system has improved, 
with a well-developed curved band in its eastern semicircle and a 
recent burst of deep convection with -75 Celsius cloud tops just 
east of the surface circulation.  Based on this and a consensus of 
the objective intensity estimates from UW-CIMSS, the system is being 
upgraded to Tropical Storm Eugene, making it the fifth tropical 
storm of the eastern North Pacific hurricane season.
 
Although dry mid-tropospheric air originating from mainland Mexico 
may be negatively affecting the cyclone's intensification rate, as 
indicated by the presence of a few arc clouds, a brief window of 
opportunity still exists for further strengthening during the next 
day or so.  By mid-period, Eugene is expected to move over the 
cooler water west of the Baja California peninsula and enter a 
surrounding dry and stable marine-layer air mass.  The NHC forecast 
calls for the cyclone to degenerate to a remnant low by 72 hours, or 
sooner, and dissipation in 5 days which is slightly below the Decay 
SHIPS statistical guidance, but close to the LGEM and the usually 
reliable intensity consensus guidance.
 
The initial estimated motion is northwestward or 315/13 kt.  The
track forecast philosophy remains unchanged, and Eugene should move
generally northwestward in the short term within the southeasterly
mid-level steering flow provided by a subtropical ridge to the
north.  By 48 hours, the vertically shallow cyclone should turn
toward the west-northwest in the lower boundary trade wind flow
while a reduction in forward speed takes place, possibly meandering
before dissipating next week.  The updated NHC track forecast is
very similar to the previous official forecast and lies near the
various consensus models.  Although the track forecast is currently
off the southwestern coast of Mexico, enough uncertainty still
exists that interests in the southern portion of the Baja
California peninsula should monitor the progress of this system.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  05/2100Z 19.2N 107.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  06/0600Z 20.5N 109.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  06/1800Z 22.0N 112.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  07/0600Z 23.4N 115.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  07/1800Z 24.6N 118.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 60H  08/0600Z 25.6N 120.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
 72H  08/1800Z 26.2N 121.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  09/1800Z 27.5N 121.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  10/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Roberts
 
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