ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Storm Eugene Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062023 300 AM MDT Sun Aug 06 2023 Eugene continues to steadily strengthen. An ASCAT-C pass from a few hours ago showed peak winds around 50 kt, and the initial intensity is increased to 55 kt since that instrument often is unable to resolve the peak winds. This intensity value is higher than the current satellite intensity estimates. The cloud pattern of Eugene resembles a central dense overcast with the deepest convection near the estimated center. Eugene is about 120 n mi south of Cabo San Lucas and it could get a little closer to that area later this morning before pulling away late today. It should be noted that Eugene is a relatively small tropical storm, with its 34-kt wind radii currently extending no more than 60 n mi from the center. The storm continues to move northwestward, or 315 degrees, at about 12 kt. Eugene should turn to the west-northwest later today and continue in that direction through Monday as it moves in the flow on the south side of a fairly strong mid-level ridge. By early Tuesday, however, the western portion of the ridge is expected to erode due to an approaching shortwave trough. In response, Eugene is forecast to slow down and turn northward or northeastward during the middle part of the week. The NHC track forecast is similar to the previous one and lies near the northern edge of the model guidance in the short term, in best agreement with the HCCA model. Since Eugene will be over warm waters for another 12 hours or so, continued strengthening is forecast, and Eugene is now predicted to become a hurricane later today. However, by tonight, the system will be moving over progressively cooler waters and into a drier air mass, which should end the strengthening trend and promote a steady decay. The NHC intensity forecast is a little higher than the previous one during the next couple of days, but falls in line with the old forecast after that. Eugene is still expected to become a remnant low over cool 20 degree C waters in about 60 hours and dissipate in 4 to 5 days. Eugene will likely produce areas of heavy rains and gusty winds across southern portions of the Baja California Sur today as it passes to the south of the peninsula. Interests there should monitor the progress of this system. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/0900Z 20.9N 109.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 06/1800Z 22.2N 112.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 07/0600Z 23.3N 115.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 07/1800Z 24.4N 118.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 08/0600Z 25.3N 120.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 08/1800Z 26.3N 121.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 09/0600Z 27.1N 121.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 10/0600Z 29.1N 119.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 11/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi NNNN