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Hurricane Fernanda Discussion Number  12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP072023
500 AM HST Tue Aug 15 2023
 
Recent satellite imagery shows that Fernanda has not changed much in 
appearance and a possible ragged eye has appeared in the last few 
hours. Earlier microwave passes indicate that the hurricane still 
has a well-defined center with concentric eyewalls. Subjective 
Dvorak estimates from SAB and TAFB range from 77 kt to 102 kt. CIMSS 
ADT and AiDT estimates are 92 kt and 87 kt, respectively. Thus, the 
initial intensity is held at 95 kt for this advisory.
 
Fernanda is moving west-northwestward at 10 kt. There has been
little change to the track forecast since the last advisory. The
hurricane is moving near the southeast periphery of a weak mid-level
ridge. A general west-northwest to westward motion is forecast over
the next several days with a slight increase in forward speed. The 
official track forecast has been nudged slightly south compared to 
the previous prediction, and the track remains close to the various 
consensus model predictions.
 
The hurricane is heading into a drier airmass and expected to 
cross the 26C isotherm in about 24 hours. Also, statistical models 
indicate that Fernanda is experiencing moderate southeasterly wind 
shear. Therefore, continued weakening is expected through the 
forecast period. Simulated satellite imagery from global models 
suggest that most of the convection will collapse in about 24 to 36 
hours and the system will be devoid of convection in about 60 
hours. Fernanda is still forecast to become a post-tropical cyclone 
at 60 hours. 
  
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  15/1500Z 17.0N 121.8W   95 KT 110 MPH
 12H  16/0000Z 17.3N 123.5W   80 KT  90 MPH
 24H  16/1200Z 17.5N 126.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
 36H  17/0000Z 17.6N 128.6W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  17/1200Z 17.8N 131.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
 60H  18/0000Z 18.0N 134.3W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 72H  18/1200Z 18.1N 137.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  19/1200Z 18.3N 143.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  20/1200Z 18.2N 149.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
Forecaster Delgado/Bucci
 
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