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Tropical Storm Fernanda Discussion Number  16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP072023
500 AM HST Wed Aug 16 2023

Corrected time of dissipation
 
Fernanda's rapid weakening continues, and there is little if any
deep convection remaining in association with the system.  Given the
lack of convection, it is difficult to estimate the current
intensity of the cyclone via the Dvorak satellite technique.
However assuming a fairly rapid spin down, the current intensity is
set to 55 kt for this advisory, with a significant amount of
uncertainty.
 
The storm has turned a little to the left and the current motion is
just slightly south of due west, or 260/13 kt.  The steering pattern
is expected to be fairly straightforward with a mid-level ridge
established the north of the cyclone.  This should result in a
continued westward motion for the next few days.  The official track
forecast is close to the corrected dynamical model consensus
guidance.
 
Fernanda is crossing the SST gradient and should be moving over
progressively cooler waters.  Therefore, the system is not likely to
regenerate sustained deep convection, and continued rapid weakening
is likely. The cyclone should drop below tropical storm strength
tomorrow and weaken to dissipation in 96 hours if not sooner.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  16/1500Z 17.1N 126.8W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  17/0000Z 16.9N 128.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  17/1200Z 16.9N 131.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  18/0000Z 16.9N 134.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  18/1200Z 17.0N 136.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  19/0000Z 17.0N 139.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  19/1200Z 17.0N 142.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  20/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Pasch
 
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