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Tropical Storm Fernanda Discussion Number  18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP072023
500 PM HST Wed Aug 16 2023
 
Fernanda has refused to give in to the increasingly inhibiting
environment and has recently produced a fragmented band with
associated -63 degree Celsius cloud top temperatures in the
west quadrant of the cyclone.  Assuming, however, that the
new burst is insufficient to maintain Fernanda's previous advisory
intensity of 45 kt, the initial intensity is lowered to 40 kt.
 
Cooler oceanic temperatures (sub 26C) and an very dry, stable 
marine-layer air mass should result in continued weakening. Fernanda 
is expected to degenerate into a post-tropical cyclone in 12 hours, 
with dissipation occurring this weekend.
 
The initial motion is estimated to be just south of due west, or 
265/13 kt.  There has been no change to the forecast track 
philosophy.  A subtropical ridge should remain anchored to the north 
of Fernanda during the next few days.  Accordingly, Fernanda is 
forecast to move generally westward through the period.  The track 
guidance remains tightly clustered, and only a slight along-track 
adjustment was needed for the latest NHC forecast.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  17/0300Z 16.7N 129.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  17/1200Z 16.6N 131.4W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 24H  18/0000Z 16.5N 134.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  18/1200Z 16.5N 136.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  19/0000Z 16.5N 139.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  19/1200Z 16.5N 141.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  20/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Roberts
 
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