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Tropical Storm Fernanda Discussion Number  19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP072023
1100 PM HST Wed Aug 16 2023
 
Fernanda appears unlikely to remain a tropical cyclone for much 
longer. While it produced some sheared bursts of convection to the 
west of its exposed center earlier tonight, the storm is currently 
devoid of any convective activity. If this persists, Fernanda could 
be declared a post-tropical cyclone later this morning. There have 
been no recent scatterometer passes over the storm, so the intensity 
of Fernanda remains quite uncertain. Assuming a continued spin down 
of the vortex, the initial intensity is lowered slightly to 35 kt. 
This is in best agreement with the 06 UTC Dvorak final-T number from 
TAFB and the latest UW-CIMSS objective satellite estimates.

Fernanda is moving westward at 265/13 kt. This general motion will 
continue for the next few days as the cyclone moves along the 
southern extent of a low- to mid-level ridge to its north. The 
thermodynamic environment along Fernanda's forecast track will 
become more unfavorable for sustained organized convection as the 
cyclone moves over sub-26C waters with dry, stable air in the 
surrounding environment. Thus, the NHC forecast shows degeneration 
to a post-tropical remnant low on Thursday with continued weakening 
into this weekend. With the latest guidance in good agreement, no 
notable changes were made to the official NHC forecast.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  17/0900Z 16.6N 130.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  17/1800Z 16.5N 132.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  18/0600Z 16.4N 135.3W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  18/1800Z 16.4N 137.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  19/0600Z 16.4N 140.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  19/1800Z 16.4N 143.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  20/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Reinhart
 
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