ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Storm Irwin Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102023 500 PM HST Mon Aug 28 2023 Irwin has surprisingly recovered some of its convective organization over the past few hours. Convection is primarily north of Irwin's center of circulation, which may have contributed to the tropical storm moving well to the right of NHC's forecasts for the last 18 hours or so. Earlier ASCAT data and the latest Dvorak analysis from TAFB support the 35-kt intensity analysis. Despite its recent poleward jog, Irwin is forecast to finally turn westward tonight. The track models are in very good agreement now on the forecast for Irwin, so only a small northward adjustment was made to the NHC track forecast to account for Irwin's recent right-of-track motion. A low- to mid-level ridge to the north of Irwin should keep the cyclone moving westward for the majority of the forecast period, whether it retains its tropical cyclone status or not. The NHC track forecast is based on the variable track consensus aid TVCN. Despite cool waters beneath Irwin and dry air surrounding the tropical cyclone, simulated satellite imagery from most dynamical models continues to indicate that Irwin will sustain some deep convection for at least a couple more days. Small fluctuations in intensity are possible during that period. Sooner or later, the environment should cause Irwin to weaken and become post-tropical. No changes of note were made to the NHC intensity forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/0300Z 19.3N 125.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 29/1200Z 19.5N 127.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 30/0000Z 19.2N 130.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 30/1200Z 19.1N 133.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 31/0000Z 19.1N 135.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 31/1200Z 19.3N 137.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 01/0000Z 19.4N 138.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 02/0000Z 19.6N 140.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 03/0000Z 19.6N 143.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster D. Zelinsky NNNN