ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Depression Eleven-E Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112023 1000 PM CDT Mon Sep 04 2023 Microwave data and visible satellite imagery indicate the depression is producing small curved bands of convection tonight. More of the convective activity is occurring over the western portion of the circulation, likely due to modest easterly shear over the system. The bands are still somewhat fragmented, and the latest Dvorak classifications are T2.0/30 kt from SAB and T2.5/35 kt from TAFB. The initial intensity is held at 30 kt for this advisory, with scatterometer data later tonight hopefully providing more clarity on the system's location and intensity. The somewhat uncertain initial motion is westward (280/10 kt) as the cyclone is steered by a high pressure ridge to its north. This ridge, which extends westward from the southwestern U.S. across northern Mexico to the eastern Pacific, should remain the dominant steering feature during the next several days. The various track models generally agree on a west-northwestward motion through this week, although there are speed differences noted during the first few days of the forecast period, with the ECMWF faster than the GFS. The updated NHC forecast is somewhat faster than the previous prediction at most forecast times, and it generally lies between the simple consensus (TVCN) and HFIP corrected consensus (HCCA) aids. Environmental and oceanic conditions appear favorable for some significant intensification of the cyclone later this week. In the near term, modest strengthening is forecast while the cyclone becomes better organized and solidifies an inner core. Once this occurs, the system should be primed to take advantage of conducive conditions for strengthening. The deep-layer shear is forecast to be fairly low for the next several days, and the cyclone is forecast to move within a very moist and diffluent upper-level environment over very warm SSTs during the next 72-96 h. The rapid intensification (RI) indices, notably the SHIPS-RII and DTOPS, show a well above average (60 to 70 percent) chance of a 65-kt intensity increase during the next 72 h. Therefore, the NHC intensity forecast continues to explicitly show RI midweek, and the system is predicted to peak at major hurricane strength. This forecast lies between the IVCN/HCCA aids and the higher statistical-dynamical guidance SHIPS and LGEM. By days 4-5, some weakening is expected while the system moves over progressively cooler waters. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/0300Z 12.7N 105.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 05/1200Z 13.0N 106.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 06/0000Z 13.6N 107.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 06/1200Z 14.3N 110.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 07/0000Z 15.1N 112.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 60H 07/1200Z 16.1N 114.8W 85 KT 100 MPH 72H 08/0000Z 17.4N 117.1W 100 KT 115 MPH 96H 09/0000Z 20.0N 122.0W 90 KT 105 MPH 120H 10/0000Z 22.5N 126.0W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ Forecaster Reinhart NNNN