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Tropical Storm Jova Discussion Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP112023
300 AM MDT Tue Sep 05 2023
 
Deep convection has increased near the center of the tropical 
cyclone, with limited banding features surrounding the central 
overcast.  Upper-level outflow is increasing over the system, 
although it is a bit restricted over the northern part of the 
circulation.  A subjective Dvorak satellite classification from 
TAFB and objective ADT intensity estimates from UW-CIMSS support a 
current intensity estimate of 35 kt for this advisory.  Therefore, 
the tropical cyclone is being named at this time.

The initial motion estimate, 280/10 kt, remains somewhat uncertain 
because the center is still not easy to locate.  However, the 
steering scenario for Jova appears to be relatively 
straightforward.  The flow on the south side of a ridge extending 
westward from a mid-tropospheric high over the southwestern U.S. 
should push Jova on a mostly west-northwestward track for the next 
several days.  The track guidance models are in reasonably good 
agreement, although there are some differences in the predicted 
forward speeds.  The NHC forecast is close to the previous one and 
lies between the simple and corrected dynamical consensus solutions.

Over the next couple of days, Jova will be moving through an 
environment that should be quite conducive for strengthening, 
possibly at a rapid pace, with low shear, high humidities, and warm 
SSTs.  The various model Rapid Intensification (RI) indices show 
greater than normal RI probabilities.  Accordingly, the official 
forecast shows intensity increases on the order of 20-25 kt per day 
over the next 48 hours.  Later in the forecast period, cooler ocean 
waters will likely cause a weakening trend.   
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  05/0900Z 12.8N 106.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  05/1800Z 13.1N 107.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  06/0600Z 13.7N 109.3W   55 KT  65 MPH
 36H  06/1800Z 14.5N 111.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
 48H  07/0600Z 15.4N 113.8W   80 KT  90 MPH
 60H  07/1800Z 16.5N 116.0W   90 KT 105 MPH
 72H  08/0600Z 17.8N 118.2W  100 KT 115 MPH
 96H  09/0600Z 20.4N 123.0W   80 KT  90 MPH
120H  10/0600Z 22.5N 127.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Pasch
 
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