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Hurricane Jova Discussion Number   7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP112023
300 AM MDT Wed Sep 06 2023
 
Jova continues to rapidly intensify.  Infrared satellite imagery 
shows that deep convection, with cloud tops colder than -90 degrees 
C, has persisted over the estimated center overnight.  Earlier 
microwave imagery revealed a partial low- and mid-level eye-like 
feature, still open to the north.  Subjective and objective 
satellite intensity estimates have risen since the last advisory and 
the initial intensity is increased to 75 kt, in agreement with 
the estimates from TAFB (T4.5/77 kt) and UW-CIMSS ADT (74 kt).  

Environmental conditions seem to be quite conducive for 
intensification and global model guidance suggests these conditions 
will continue for the next couple of days.  Deep-layer vertical wind 
shear is expected to remain below 10 kt and sea surface temperatures 
range between 28-29 degrees C along the forecast track.  Statistical 
models show extremely high probabilities of continued rapid 
intensification and the official forecast explicitly predicts such 
strengthening.  The latest prediction now peaks Jova at 120 kt in 48 
h.  Cooling ocean waters and a dry, stable atmosphere should induce 
a weakening trend by day 3, which is expected to continue through 
the end of the forecast period. 

Jova is moving west-northwestward at 8 kt.  There have been no 
changes to the track forecast reasoning.  Jova is moving along the 
southern periphery of a mid-level ridge centered over northern 
Mexico.  The hurricane is expected to maintain this motion with an 
increase in forward speed as it rounds the southwestern edge of 
the high.  The latest NHC track forecast is quite similar to the 
previous prediction, except for a slightly faster forward speed 
favoring the corrected consensus aid, HCCA. 
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  06/0900Z 13.6N 109.6W   75 KT  85 MPH
 12H  06/1800Z 14.3N 111.3W   90 KT 105 MPH
 24H  07/0600Z 15.2N 113.8W  105 KT 120 MPH
 36H  07/1800Z 16.2N 116.3W  115 KT 130 MPH
 48H  08/0600Z 17.4N 118.8W  120 KT 140 MPH
 60H  08/1800Z 18.6N 121.3W  110 KT 125 MPH
 72H  09/0600Z 19.9N 123.8W  100 KT 115 MPH
 96H  10/0600Z 22.4N 128.2W   65 KT  75 MPH
120H  11/0600Z 24.4N 131.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Bucci
 
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