ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Hurricane Jova Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112023 900 PM MDT Wed Sep 06 2023 The remarkable rapid intensification (RI) of Jova has continued this evening. The hurricane's very warm, 10 n-mi-wide eye is surrounded by a symmetric central dense overcast of convective cloud tops colder than -75 deg C. Recent SSMIS microwave images suggest an eyewall replacement cycle (ERC) is underway, with signs of a formative secondary eyewall noted in 89-GHz imagery. The GOES Geostationary Lightning Mapper has also shown an increase in inner core lightning activity during the past several hours. Based on Dvorak data-T numbers of 7.0 from SAB and TAFB at 00 UTC and rapidly climbing objective intensity estimates, the initial intensity of Jova is raised to 140 kt. This makes Jova a category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale and signifies an 80-kt intensity increase over the past 24 h. The onset of an ERC and the recent lightning activity suggest that the hurricane could be nearing its peak intensity. Structural changes related to the ERC could cause some near-term intensity fluctuations, but the NHC forecast still allows for a bit more strengthening overnight given Jova's striking satellite presentation and the conducive oceanic and atmospheric conditions along its path. The hurricane is forecast to reach the 26C isotherm in 36-48 h, after which time a faster rate of weakening is forecast while Jova moves over cooler waters and into a drier mid-level environment. Regardless, Jova is likely to remain a powerful hurricane for the next few days. This forecast shows Jova keeping its tropical cyclone status through day 5, although the global models suggest it could be mostly devoid of convection and nearly post-tropical by the end of the forecast period. A mid-level ridge centered over northern Mexico is steering Jova to the west-northwest (300/13 kt). With the ridge entrenched to its north, the hurricane is expected to continue on a west-northwestward heading for the next several days, as depicted by the well-clustered track guidance. The updated NHC forecast lies very close to the previous prediction, but once again has been adjusted slightly faster based on the latest TVCN and HCCA consensus aids. As the cyclone gradually spins down and weakens over cooler waters, the shallow vortex is forecast to turn more westward at days 4 and 5. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/0300Z 15.7N 113.0W 140 KT 160 MPH 12H 07/1200Z 16.4N 115.1W 150 KT 175 MPH 24H 08/0000Z 17.6N 117.8W 135 KT 155 MPH 36H 08/1200Z 18.7N 120.5W 120 KT 140 MPH 48H 09/0000Z 20.0N 123.0W 100 KT 115 MPH 60H 09/1200Z 21.4N 125.5W 85 KT 100 MPH 72H 10/0000Z 22.8N 127.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 11/0000Z 24.6N 130.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 12/0000Z 25.5N 134.0W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ Forecaster Reinhart NNNN