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Hurricane Jova Discussion Number  17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP112023
200 PM PDT Fri Sep 08 2023
  
Jova continues to weaken as it encounters cooler sea surface 
temperatures. The overall satellite depiction of Jova is that of a 
weakening tropical system, encountering a more stable environment. 
A SSMIS microwave pass that came in just after the previous 
advisory, shows that banding around Jova is thinning, and the inner 
core is collapsing as dry air wraps into the system. Cloud tops 
within the convection have been warming throughout the day as well. 
Subjective and objective satellite estimates have continued to 
decrease throughout the day. The initial intensity has been set to 
75 kt, which represents a blend of the data-T and current intensity 
Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB.
 
Environmental conditions along the forecast track are becoming less 
favorable, as the hurricane is moving over cool sea surface 
temperatures and into a more stable airmass. The latest NHC forecast 
continues to show steady weakening and is similar to the previous 
advisory. The GFS and ECMWF simulated satellite show the system 
becoming devoid of convection in about 3 days, and Jova is forecast 
to become a post-tropical remnant low at that time.
 
Jova is moving to the west-northwest at 13 kt. This general motion 
with a decrease in forward speed is expected to continue for the 
next couple of days while the cyclone rounds the end of a ridge 
centered over the southwestern United States. As Jova weakens, the 
system is forecast to turn westward to west-southwestward into the 
low-level flow towards the end of the forecast period. The NHC track 
forecast is close to the previous advisory, just slightly slower 
and lies near the consensus aids.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  08/2100Z 20.4N 122.4W   75 KT  85 MPH
 12H  09/0600Z 21.3N 124.1W   60 KT  70 MPH
 24H  09/1800Z 22.6N 125.9W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  10/0600Z 23.8N 127.1W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  10/1800Z 24.6N 128.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 60H  11/0600Z 24.9N 128.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
 72H  11/1800Z 24.6N 129.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  12/1800Z 24.1N 132.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  13/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Kelly
 
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