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Tropical Storm Jova Discussion Number  21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP112023
200 PM PDT Sat Sep 09 2023
 
Jova's convection continues to dissipate this afternoon, with only a 
few bursts in the inner core. Microwave imagery from SSMI/S depicts 
decreased convective banding and the overall structure of the 
system continues to deteriorate as well. A blend of subjective and 
objective satellite intensity estimates suggest an intensity of 45 
kt, which is the initial intensity for this advisory.
 
Jova is forecast to continue weakening for the next few days as the
system moves over cool sea surface temperatures, and into a stable
air mass. Simulated satellite imagery from the GFS and ECMWF models 
suggest Jova will be devoid of deep convection and become a remnant 
low in about 36 hours, and this is reflected in the NHC intensity 
forecast.
 
The initial motion is estimated to be northwestward at 8 kt. Jova 
should continue to move generally toward the northwest around the 
edge of a subtropical ridge during the next day or so. As Jova 
weakens, the system is forecast to turn westward to 
west-southwestward within the low-level flow through the end of the 
forecast period. The NHC track forecast is similar to the previous 
forecast track.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  09/2100Z 22.9N 126.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  10/0600Z 23.6N 127.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  10/1800Z 24.3N 127.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  11/0600Z 24.6N 128.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  11/1800Z 24.4N 129.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  12/0600Z 24.0N 130.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  12/1800Z 23.1N 133.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  13/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Kelly
 
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