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Tropical Storm Jova Discussion Number  23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP112023
200 AM PDT Sun Sep 10 2023
 
A shrinking area of fragmented convection is all that remains of 
Jova's cloud pattern this morning.  A 0525 UTC METOP-C scatterometer 
pass revealed a couple of 35 kt winds in the northeast quadrant.  In 
the deference of undersampling, the initial intensity is lowered to 
40 kt for this advisory.
 
A gradual spin down of Jova should continue through the period while 
it remains over sub 23 degree Celsius SSTs.  Consequently, Jova is 
likely to degenerate into a remnant low by early Monday, or or as 
soon as this evening, as suggested in the global model simulated 
infrared guidance.  No significant changes were made to the official 
forecast and it's similar to the IVCN multi-model intensity 
guidance.
 
Jova's initial motion is estimated to be northwestward or about 
315/7 kt, on the southwestern periphery of a subtropical ridge 
centered over the Baja California peninsula.  As Jova degenerates to 
a vertically shallow cyclone around the 24 hour period, it should 
turn toward the west and west-southwest.  The NHC forecast track is 
basically an update of the previous advisory and is based on the 
various consensus aids.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  10/0900Z 24.0N 126.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  10/1800Z 24.5N 127.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  11/0600Z 24.8N 128.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  11/1800Z 24.6N 129.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  12/0600Z 24.1N 130.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  12/1800Z 23.2N 132.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  13/0600Z 22.3N 134.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  14/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Roberts
 
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