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Tropical Storm Kenneth Discussion Number  10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP132023
200 PM PDT Thu Sep 21 2023
 
Kenneth is a sheared tropical cyclone. The small area of active 
convection associated with the storm has been displaced over 90 n mi 
from its exposed low-level center by southwesterly shear. This 
deteriorating satellite presentation has caused the intensity 
estimates to decrease today. Based on a blend of the latest 
objective and subjective Dvorak estimates, the initial intensity is 
lowered to 35 kt. 
 
Recent satellite images indicate Kenneth has begun its northward 
turn, and the initial motion is north-northwestward at 330/6 kt. A 
generally northward motion should continue for the next couple of 
days as the system moves within the flow between a mid-level trough 
to the northwest and a mid-level ridge over central Mexico. There 
were no major changes to the track guidance this cycle, and the 
latest NHC forecast is similar to the previous prediction. While 
simulated satellite imagery from the global models suggest Kenneth 
could produce intermittent bursts of sheared convection during the 
next day or so, the environmental conditions (stronger shear, 
progressively cooler SSTs, and a drier and more stable airmass) are 
not conducive for sustained convection going forward. Based on these 
factors and recent satellite trends, this forecast shows additional 
weakening with post-tropical/remnant low status in 24 h.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  21/2100Z 17.9N 125.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  22/0600Z 19.2N 126.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  22/1800Z 20.9N 125.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  23/0600Z 22.3N 125.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  23/1800Z 23.4N 125.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  24/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Reinhart
 
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