ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
Tropical Depression Fourteen-E Discussion Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP142023
1100 PM HST Sat Sep 23 2023
 
The cyclone has not become significantly better organized over the 
past several hours.  Deep convection has been waxing and waning 
near the estimated center and the system lacks distinct convective 
banding features.  Upper-level outflow is not very well defined at 
this time.  The current intensity estimate is held at 30 kt based 
on Dvorak analyses from TAFB and SAB.  Objective intensity 
estimates from UW-CIMSS are a little higher, suggesting that the 
cyclone may be a minimal tropical storm.  However it is prudent to 
wait for additional intensity estimates before upgrading the system.

Although the center fixes have some scatter, my best estimate of 
initial motion is westward, or 280/12 kt.  A mid-level ridge to the 
north of the system should maintain a generally westward track for 
the next couple of days.  The track model consensus shows a 
slightly south of westward motion in the latter part of the forecast 
period, Thus the official forecast has been nudged a little south of 
the previous one in 2-4 days, but not as far south as the consensus 
prediction. 

Over the next day or so, the depression should remain over warm 
waters and in an atmospheric environment of moderate vertical wind
shear with marginally moist mid-level humidities.  Therefore some 
modest short-term strengthening is predicted.  Around 48 hours and 
beyond, southwesterly shear should increase and this, along with 
some drier air, is likely to halt the intensification process.  The 
system is likely to gradually weaken in 2 to 4 days and, in fact, 
the global models show the system degenerating into a trough within 
4 days.  The official forecast, like the previous one, shows the 
system becoming a remnant low in 96 hours.  However it is possible 
that the cyclone may not last as long as that.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  24/0900Z 14.3N 122.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  24/1800Z 14.6N 124.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  25/0600Z 14.7N 126.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  25/1800Z 14.6N 129.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  26/0600Z 14.2N 132.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 60H  26/1800Z 13.6N 135.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 72H  27/0600Z 13.0N 138.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 96H  28/0600Z 11.8N 144.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  29/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Pasch
 
NNNN