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Tropical Storm Lidia Discussion Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP152023
300 PM MDT Tue Oct 03 2023
 
Lidia continues to exhibit a curved band on geostationary and 
microwave satellite imagery this afternoon. Deep convection is 
predominately developing to the west of the low-level center due to 
the influence of moderate easterly vertical wind shear. The initial 
intensity is held at 35 kt for this advisory in agreement with the 
subjective Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB, and the 
objective intensity estimates, ADT and AiDT from UW-CIMSS. 
 
The system is moving northwest at 320/7 kt around the southwestern 
edge of a mid-level ridge located over Mexico. A mid- to upper-level 
trough to the northwest will begin to weaken the ridge allowing 
Lidia to move northwest to north-northwest during the next 48 hours. 
Most models are now in agreement with a more westward motion in 
Lidia between 48 and 72 hours. There are large differences in the 
speed of the system, with the UKMET accelerating towards the west 
faster than the other global models. The forward speed of the system 
was adjusted slightly faster for this advisory in the short term, 
and the track forecast is in line with the simple consensus aids.
 
Lidia is still battling some moderate easterly vertical wind shear. 
The ECMWF/GFS SHIPS guidance depicts that moderate shear will remain 
over the system throughout much of the forecast period despite 
otherwise favorable environmental conditions. The guidance for RI 
continues to lessen the probability with this cycle. The GFS, HWRF, 
and SHIPS models still strengthen Lidia into a hurricane beyond 2 
days, however much of the other guidance, including the HAFS models, 
does not intensify Lidia as much. The NHC intensity forecast was 
lowered slightly from the previous advisory and continues to show 
gradual strengthening to a hurricane by day 5. 
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  03/2100Z 12.8N 107.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  04/0600Z 13.7N 108.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  04/1800Z 14.5N 108.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  05/0600Z 15.2N 109.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  05/1800Z 15.7N 109.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
 60H  06/0600Z 15.9N 110.3W   55 KT  65 MPH
 72H  06/1800Z 15.9N 111.1W   55 KT  65 MPH
 96H  07/1800Z 15.7N 112.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
120H  08/1800Z 15.8N 114.1W   65 KT  75 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Kelly/Stevenson
 
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