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Hurricane Lidia Discussion Number  31
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP152023
300 PM MDT Tue Oct 10 2023
 
Lidia became a major hurricane around 1800 UTC and has continued to
intensify since that time.  The Air Force Hurricane Hunters recently
found that the minimum pressure has fallen significantly to 950 mb.
In addition, the maximum 700-mb flight-level wind measured by the
aircraft was 116 kt, which adjusts to about 105 kt at the surface.
The maximum SFMR surface wind reported was 108 kt.  Based on these
data, the initial intensity is increased to 110 kt.  Lidia has
strengthened by a very impressive 50 kt over the past 24 hours.
Although the eye has just become evident in geostationary satellite
images, it has been clearly seen in microwave data for much 
of the day.  Deep convection has been increasing in coverage and
magnitude, and has become more symmetric during the past few hours.
 
The outer rain bands of Lidia are beginning to spread across
portions of west-central Mexico, and weather conditions are
expected to steadily worsen into the evening.  The center of Lidia
is forecast to make landfall in west-central Mexico later this 
evening.
 
As mentioned above, Lidia has rapidly strengthened over very warm
SSTs and in a favorable upper-level wind pattern during the past day
or so.  Since the environmental conditions are not expected to
change, Lidia could reach category 4 strength before it makes
landfall.  Rapid weakening is expected once the center moves inland,
and Lidia is forecast to dissipate on Wednesday over the rugged
terrain of central Mexico.
 
 
Key Messages:
 
1. Lidia is expected to make landfall in west-central Mexico as a
major hurricane this evening. Life-threatening hurricane-force 
winds are expected within the Hurricane Warning area.
 
2. Heavy rains from Lidia will likely produce flash and urban
flooding, along with possible mudslides in areas of higher terrain
across the the state of Nayarit, southern portions of the state of
Sinaloa, and coastal portions of the state of Jalisco in western
Mexico.
 
3. A dangerous storm surge is expected near and to the south of
where the center of Lidia moves onshore along the coast of
west-central Mexico. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied 
by large and destructive waves. 
 
4. Swells from Lidia will cause dangerous surf and rip current
conditions along the west coast of Mexico and the Baja California
peninsula during the next day or so.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  10/2100Z 19.6N 106.6W  110 KT 125 MPH
 12H  11/0600Z 21.2N 104.0W   70 KT  80 MPH...INLAND
 24H  11/1800Z 23.2N 100.6W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
 36H  12/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
 
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