ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Hurricane Norma Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172023 900 AM MDT Thu Oct 19 2023 Norma has continued to show signs of strengthening this morning. The 15 to 20 n-mi-wide eye of the hurricane is surrounded by a thick ring of convective cloud tops colder than -70 to -75C. The initial intensity is raised to 115 kt based on consensus T6.0/115 kt subjective Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB. The Air Force Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to investigate Norma later today. The eye of Norma has deviated right of track during the past 6-12 h, and the longer-term motion is nearly due north (360/6 kt). The track forecast remains challenging. Even in the near term, there is significant spread among the various models, likely related to differences in the steering flow based on the vertical depth of the cyclone. Given recent trends, the NHC forecast has been adjusted to the right of the previous one through 60 h, bringing it just east of the multi-model consensus aids and favoring the stronger GFS and regional hurricane models. Thereafter, it remains unclear whether Norma will turn northeastward and approach the west coast of mainland Mexico, or stall and meander to the south of the Baja California peninsula. The official forecast continues to show Norma moving toward mainland Mexico beyond 60 h, albeit slower than some of the stronger model guidance (GFS, HAFS) with a deeper vortex. Once again, confidence is low and future track and/or speed adjustments could be required. Recent satellite images and model shear analyses suggest that southerly shear is increasing over Norma and will continue to do so over the next couple of days. Therefore, the hurricane is likely near its peak intensity, although some small fluctuations cannot be ruled out today. By Friday, weakening is expected as Norma likely becomes more tilted by the shear and moves into a drier and more stable environment. Still, Norma could be at or near hurricane strength when it makes its closest approach to the southern tip of Baja California, where a Hurricane Watch is in effect. Beyond 72 h, the intensity forecast is more uncertain and highly dependent on Norma's track, structure, and the extent (if any) of land interaction with the Baja peninsula. If Norma moves faster than forecast, it could reach the west coast of mainland Mexico as a stronger storm. Given the track uncertainty described above, interests there are encouraged to closely monitor forecast updates. Key Messages: 1. Norma is expected to be at or near hurricane strength as it approaches the southern tip of Baja California, and a hurricane watch has been issued for that area. 2. Heavy rains from Norma will begin to impact the far southern portions of California Baja Sur on late Friday, continuing through Sunday. This rainfall may produce flash and urban flooding, along with possible mudslides in areas of higher terrain. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/1500Z 17.4N 107.6W 115 KT 130 MPH 12H 20/0000Z 18.1N 107.7W 115 KT 130 MPH 24H 20/1200Z 19.3N 108.3W 100 KT 115 MPH 36H 21/0000Z 20.5N 108.8W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 21/1200Z 21.9N 109.2W 75 KT 85 MPH 60H 22/0000Z 23.0N 109.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 22/1200Z 23.6N 109.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 23/1200Z 24.2N 108.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 24/1200Z 24.8N 107.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Reinhart NNNN