ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Hurricane Norma Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172023 900 PM MDT Fri Oct 20 2023 Norma's satellite depiction has not changed much over the past few hours, with a tight inner core on infrared imagery. A recent SSMI/S microwave pass at 2306 UTC confirmed the tight core is well intact. The last few visible satellite images showed the eye feature becoming less cloud filled, and better defined. Earlier Air Force Hurricane Hunters flight-level and SFMR winds supported an intensity of 105 kt. Subject and objective Dvorak satellite intensity estimates for this cycle range from 90 to 105 kt. Given the satellite imagery and the earlier hurricane hunter data, will remain near the high end of the intensity estimates, with an initial intensity remaining at 105 kt for this advisory. The outer rain bands of Norma are spreading over the southern portions of the Baja California Sur peninsula. The hurricane is move north-northwestward with an initial motion of 340/8 kt. Norma is expected to turn from a north-northwest motion to northward over the next day or so, while it moves between a mid- to upper-level trough to its northwest and a mid-level ridge to its east. This will bring the center of Norma over the southern tip of Baja California Sur within the hurricane warning on Saturday. The track models are in fairly good agreement with little change to the previous NHC track in the short term. After moving over the Baja Peninsula and emerging into the Gulf of California, models are in agreement with a northeast to east-northeastward turn towards the coast of Sinaloa. There remains some along-track speed differences between the various model aids. The NHC forecast is similar to the previous, with a slight nudge to the right towards the HCCA corrected consensus. Norma has been able to maintain an inner core and fend off the increasing southerly wind shear and drier air today. The drier air has attempted to penetrate the inner core, but so far has not been able to do so. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous, which still shows some weakening, but Norma is expected to be a dangerous hurricane as it moves over the Baja California Sur peninsula. Land interaction with the Baja California peninsula, along with increasingly dry air and southerly shear, should result in steady weakening through early next week while Norma approaches the west coast of mainland Mexico. After the system moves inland along the coast of Sinaloa on Monday, the system should rapidly weaken and dissipate over the higher terrain. Key Messages: 1. Norma is expected to bring life-threatening hurricane conditions and a dangerous storm surge to portions of the far southern Baja California peninsula within the hurricane warning area on Saturday. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. 2. Heavy rains from Norma will begin to impact the far southern portions of Baja California Sur tonight, continuing through Sunday, with heavy rains reaching Sinaloa on Saturday. This rainfall will produce flash and urban flooding, along with possible mudslides in areas of higher terrain. 3. Norma is forecast to approach the west coast of Mexico as a tropical storm on Sunday and Sunday night, and a Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for a portion of that area. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/0300Z 20.8N 109.9W 105 KT 120 MPH 12H 21/1200Z 21.9N 110.1W 100 KT 115 MPH 24H 22/0000Z 23.0N 109.9W 85 KT 100 MPH...INLAND 36H 22/1200Z 23.6N 109.4W 70 KT 80 MPH...OVER WATER 48H 23/0000Z 23.9N 108.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 60H 23/1200Z 24.3N 107.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 24/0000Z 24.8N 106.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 96H 25/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Kelly NNNN