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Tropical Storm Norma Discussion Number  21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP172023
300 PM MDT Sun Oct 22 2023
 
Norma continues to have periodic bursts of convection. Despite its 
sheared appearance on visible imagery, recent satellite wind data 
showed that the surface circulation has strengthened slightly.  
Based on these observations, the initial intensity has been raised 
to 55 kt, and the wind radii have been adjusted outward.  Little 
changes in strength is expected in the next 12 h or so before 
landfall.  Norma is forecast to move inland early tomorrow, rapidly 
weaken, and dissipate over elevated terrain in a day or so.
 
Norma has turned northeastward at an estimated 040/3 kt.  A turn to 
the east-northeast is predicted later today as storm approaches 
the coast of mainland Mexico. The track guidance is starting to 
coming into better agreement, and the guidance envelope has shifted 
to the south this cycle. The latest NHC track forecast is nudged 
south as well following the trend.  Regardless of the exact 
landfall location of the center, heavy rainfall and gusty winds 
will continue along the coast of the Mexican state of Sinaloa and 
inland through tonight and into tomorrow morning.
 
Key Messages:
 
1. Heavy rains from Norma will continue to impact Sinaloa into 
Monday.  This rainfall will produce flash and urban flooding, along 
with mudslides in areas of higher terrain.
 
2. Tropical storm conditions will continue along portions of the 
west coast of mainland Mexico within the Tropical Storm Warning area 
through tonight.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  22/2100Z 24.9N 109.4W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  23/0600Z 25.1N 108.9W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  23/1800Z 25.5N 108.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 36H  24/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Bucci
 
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