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Tropical Storm Norma Discussion Number  22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP172023
900 PM MDT Sun Oct 22 2023

The center of Norma is exposed tonight with all of the deep 
convection displaced well northeast of the center.  The initial wind 
speed is lowered to 50 kt, in accordance with Dvorak estimates 
assuming some weakening from earlier scatterometer data.  While the 
global models re-develop some deep convection overnight near the 
center over the warm Gulf of California waters, strong shear is 
expected to cause Norma to weaken as it approaches mainland Mexico.  
Norma is forecast to continue to move slowly east-northeastward 
through landfall early Monday, then rapidly weaken and dissipate as 
a tropical cyclone over the elevated terrain in less than 24 hours. 
Only a slight southward adjustment was made to the track forecast. 
Heavy rains causing flash floods and mudslides are expected to be 
the main hazards with Norma.

Key Messages:
 
1. Heavy rains from Norma will continue to impact locations 
in and near Sinaloa into Monday.  This rainfall will produce flash 
and urban flooding, along with mudslides in areas of higher terrain.
 
2. Tropical storm conditions will continue along portions of the
west coast of mainland Mexico within the Tropical Storm Warning area
through tonight.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  23/0300Z 25.0N 109.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  23/1200Z 25.3N 108.3W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND
 24H  24/0000Z 26.0N 107.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  24/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Blake
 
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