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Tropical Storm Otis Discussion Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP182023
400 PM CDT Sun Oct 22 2023

The tropical depression south of Mexico has strengthened into 
Tropical Storm Otis. Satellite imagery shows that the center is just 
east of an increasing area of deep convection that has continued to 
consolidate. With this slight improvement in structure, the initial 
intensity has been raised to 35 kt, which is below the 3.0/45 kt 
Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB.
 
Otis is moving northward at 4 kt. A continued slow northward motion 
is expected during the next couple of days as the system moves in a 
light steering flow between a ridge to its northeast and a trough to 
its northwest.  By midweek, the system is expected to weaken as it 
shifts northwestward in the low-level flow. However, by the end of 
the forecast period, there is quite a bit of spread in the track 
guidance making the long-term forecast somewhat uncertain. The NHC 
track forecast is near the various consensus aids and a little to 
the north of the previous one at days 4 and 5.
 
Some slight strengthening is possible during the next couple of days 
while the storm remains in generally conducive environmental 
conditions.  However, beyond that time, an increase in vertical wind 
shear should cause slow weakening, and most of the models show the 
system decoupling or dissipating by the end of the forecast period. 
The NHC intensity forecast lies near the middle of the guidance 
envelope.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  22/2100Z 10.3N  96.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  23/0600Z 10.7N  97.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  23/1800Z 11.6N  96.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  24/0600Z 12.7N  96.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  24/1800Z 13.5N  97.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
 60H  25/0600Z 13.9N  97.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
 72H  25/1800Z 14.2N  97.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
 96H  26/1800Z 14.5N  98.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
120H  27/1800Z 14.9N  98.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Bucci
 
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