ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
Hurricane Otis Special Discussion Number  11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP182023
700 PM CDT Tue Oct 24 2023

This special advisory is being issued to update the current and 
forecast intensity of Otis.  Satellite images show that the very 
rapid intensification observed earlier today has continued, and the 
latest data support an initial intensity of 125 kt.  The intensity 
forecast peak is updated to 140 kt, category 5 strength, since the 
environment isn't forecast to change much before landfall, and there 
are no signs of this explosive intensification stopping.  This is 
an extremely dangerous situation, and all preparations for Otis 
should be rushed to completion.

There are no changes to the track or wind radii forecast on this 
advisory, and this special advisory is being issued in lieu of the 
Intermediate Advisory.
 
Key Messages:
 
1. Otis is forecast to be a potentially catastrophic Category 5
hurricane when it reaches the southern coast of Mexico late tonight
or early Wednesday, and preparations to protect life and property
should be rushed to completion.
 
2. A potentially catastrophic storm surge is expected to produce
life-threatening coastal flooding near and to the east of where the
center makes landfall.  Near the coast, the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves.
 
3. Heavy rains from Otis will continue to impact areas of southwest
Mexico this week.  This rainfall will produce flash and urban
flooding, along with mudslides in areas of higher terrain.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  25/0000Z 15.7N  99.6W  125 KT 145 MPH
 12H  25/0600Z 16.3N 100.0W  140 KT 160 MPH
 24H  25/1800Z 17.5N 100.8W   90 KT 105 MPH...INLAND
 36H  26/0600Z 18.1N 101.5W   50 KT  60 MPH...INLAND
 48H  26/1800Z 18.4N 102.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 60H  27/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Blake
 
NNNN