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Tropical Storm Pilar Discussion Number  32
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP192023
800 AM MST Sun Nov 05 2023
 
Pilar's cloud pattern has degraded a bit this morning, and a recent
SSMIS microwave image shows that mid-level circulation and deep
convection have decoupled to the northeast of the low-level center.
Still, the initial intensity remains 45 kt, possibly generously, 
based on the latest Dvorak CI numbers and objective satellite 
estimates.  Although deep-layer shear is diagnosed in the SHIPS 
model as being low, global model analyses suggest that stronger 
mid-level southwesterly shear is occurring beneath the outflow 
level.  Therefore, some gradual weakening is likely over the next 
day or so.  After 24 hours, deeper-layer shear begins to increase to 
the east of a trough, which should cause Pilar to weaken faster 
through midweek.  The cyclone is forecast to lose organized 
convection and degenerate into a remnant low in about 2 days, and 
then dissipate into a trough by day 4.
 
Pilar has slowed down and turned west-northwestward with an initial
motion of 285/7 kt in response to a mid-level trough extending 
southwest of the Baja California peninsula.  The storm is forecast 
to turn toward the northwest in about 24 hours as it approaches the 
trough, and continue on that heading until it dissipates in about 4 
days.  The NHC track forecast is close to the previous prediction 
and lies between the HCCA and TVCE consensus aids.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  05/1500Z 10.8N 112.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  06/0000Z 11.3N 113.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  06/1200Z 12.1N 114.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  07/0000Z 13.1N 115.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  07/1200Z 14.6N 116.9W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  08/0000Z 16.0N 118.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  08/1200Z 17.3N 119.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  09/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Berg
 
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