ZCZC MIATCPEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM BULLETIN Tropical Storm Raymond Advisory Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172025 200 PM MST Fri Oct 10 2025 ...RAYMOND CONTINUES MOVING JUST OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR... SUMMARY OF 200 PM MST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.1N 106.5W ABOUT 145 MI...230 KM W OF MANZANILLO MEXICO ABOUT 340 MI...550 KM SE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has upgraded the Tropical Storm Watch to a Tropical Storm Warning for Baja California Sur from Los Barriles to Santa Fe, and discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning south of Manzanillo. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Manzanillo to Cabo Corrientes, Mexico * Las Islas Marias * Baja California Sur from Los Barriles to Santa Fe, Mexico A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM MST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Raymond was located near latitude 19.1 North, longitude 106.5 West. Raymond is moving toward the northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue through early Saturday, followed by a northward turn Saturday evening into Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of the cyclone is expected to move parallel to the southwestern coast of Mexico through tonight and then approach southern Baja California Sur over the weekend. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected through tonight, followed by a weakening trend over the weekend. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Storm Raymond can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2 and WMO header WTPZ42 KNHC. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area in Southwestern Mexico, and Islas Marias through tonight, with these conditions expected in portions of Baja California Sur starting Saturday. RAINFALL: Rainfall totals of 4 to 6 inches with local amounts of 8 or more inches are expected across Sonora and northern Chihuahua. This rainfall will bring a risk of flash flooding, especially in areas of higher terrain. Across coastal portions of Michoacan, Colima, Jalisco, Nayarit, Sinaloa, and the central to southern portions of Baja California Sur, rainfall totals of 1 to 2 inches are expected. Moisture from Raymond will also bring the potential for additional heavy rainfall over portions of the Southwest U.S. Sunday into early next week. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding associated with the depression, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep2.shtml?rainqpf SURF: Swells generated by the storm are expected to spread westward along the southwestern coast of Mexico later today and reach southern Baja California Sur on Saturday. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 500 PM MST. Next complete advisory at 800 PM MST. $$ Forecaster Kelly NNNN