* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * NONAME CP822018 06/26/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 24 24 24 24 23 22 21 18 16 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 25 24 24 24 24 23 22 21 18 16 DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 25 25 24 24 23 22 21 20 20 19 18 17 15 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 13 15 16 16 14 11 15 17 22 27 30 28 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -4 -5 -6 -5 -4 -1 -1 -4 -2 -2 0 0 SHEAR DIR 264 257 258 259 270 291 257 259 263 283 282 293 285 SST (C) 27.1 27.1 27.2 27.2 27.2 27.2 27.3 27.5 27.6 27.5 27.4 27.4 27.3 POT. INT. (KT) 134 134 135 136 136 136 138 139 140 138 136 136 133 200 MB T (C) -54.8 -54.8 -54.8 -54.5 -54.5 -54.9 -54.6 -54.9 -54.3 -54.6 -54.1 -54.4 -54.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 6 6 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 700-500 MB RH 46 48 49 50 51 54 55 54 56 57 57 60 58 MODEL VTX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 50 51 50 40 37 35 27 19 16 18 0 -2 -1 200 MB DIV -6 -15 -6 3 8 26 49 4 -9 -32 -8 -8 19 700-850 TADV -3 -4 -3 -1 -2 0 -2 0 0 2 -1 1 0 LAND (KM) 838 783 749 708 675 656 675 739 808 825 820 824 815 LAT (DEG N) 14.1 14.0 13.8 13.6 13.4 13.0 13.1 13.6 14.4 15.3 16.0 16.6 17.1 LONG(DEG W) 149.3 150.2 151.0 151.9 152.9 155.2 157.5 159.8 161.7 163.3 164.4 165.2 165.6 STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 8 9 11 11 12 11 9 8 5 4 2 HEAT CONTENT 3 4 5 6 11 25 10 17 28 20 19 20 17 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 637 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 41.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 7. 13. 19. 24. 27. 29. 30. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -3. -6. -10. -12. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -4. -5. -8. -12. -15. -17. -19. -20. -20. -20. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -9. -10. -10. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 14.1 149.3 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX CP822018 NONAME 06/26/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 110.2 40.5 to 149.3 0.64 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.1 18.9 to 1.4 0.27 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 5.8 0.0 to 106.7 0.05 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -3.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.16 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 37.8 to 2.1 999.00 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 30.3 62.3 to 0.0 0.51 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.2 to -1.9 999.00 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 148.6 735.9 to -82.5 0.72 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP822018 NONAME 06/26/18 06 UTC ## ## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING