* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * ONE CP852018 06/26/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 33 34 34 33 32 29 27 25 23 20 18 V (KT) LAND 30 32 33 34 34 33 32 29 27 25 23 20 18 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 33 34 35 35 34 32 30 29 27 25 22 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 9 10 16 20 19 19 17 16 17 25 29 37 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -4 -3 -5 -6 -2 -3 0 3 0 -1 0 0 SHEAR DIR 332 324 317 304 312 328 316 320 305 289 287 294 296 SST (C) 27.2 27.2 27.2 27.2 27.2 27.2 27.0 26.9 26.9 26.9 27.1 27.3 27.4 POT. INT. (KT) 135 135 135 135 135 135 133 132 132 132 134 136 137 200 MB T (C) -55.0 -55.0 -54.8 -54.7 -54.7 -54.6 -54.5 -54.5 -54.4 -54.4 -54.4 -54.7 -55.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 700-500 MB RH 46 46 45 44 45 46 47 45 46 47 49 51 54 MODEL VTX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 60 57 41 33 34 20 20 10 14 5 4 -5 0 200 MB DIV -5 -5 -12 -34 -16 -4 -22 -22 -42 -19 -10 5 13 700-850 TADV -4 -3 -2 -2 -1 1 0 0 1 3 0 1 0 LAND (KM) 1118 1051 984 915 849 742 627 538 489 476 510 591 698 LAT (DEG N) 13.1 13.3 13.4 13.6 13.7 13.8 14.1 14.3 14.5 14.8 15.1 15.3 15.5 LONG(DEG W) 146.7 147.4 148.1 148.8 149.6 151.1 152.5 154.0 155.5 156.9 158.3 159.8 161.3 STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 4 4 4 4 4 5 4 8 12 13 14 18 18 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 660 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 50.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 11. 16. 20. 22. 24. 25. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -2. -5. -6. -8. -10. -12. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -10. -11. -11. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 2. -1. -3. -5. -7. -10. -12. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 13.1 146.7 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX CP852018 ONE 06/26/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 104.8 40.5 to 149.3 0.59 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.6 18.9 to 1.4 0.36 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 4.0 0.0 to 106.7 0.04 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -14.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.10 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 37.8 to 2.1 999.00 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 97.8 62.3 to 0.0 0.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.2 to -1.9 999.00 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 199.4 735.9 to -82.5 0.66 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP852018 ONE 06/26/18 12 UTC ## ## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING