* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TEST AL872023 04/26/23 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 35 34 32 30 23 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 35 35 34 32 30 23 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 35 37 36 34 32 27 22 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 27 25 26 31 31 36 44 41 40 37 40 45 48 48 39 32 28 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 5 5 2 4 5 6 8 9 4 5 -1 2 0 5 2 4 SHEAR DIR 261 264 251 249 258 247 257 274 284 290 289 275 274 277 291 294 306 SST (C) 27.2 27.4 27.5 27.5 27.5 27.6 27.5 27.1 27.0 27.0 27.0 26.8 26.8 27.0 27.1 27.2 27.8 POT. INT. (KT) 127 127 127 127 128 130 129 123 120 120 120 119 120 123 125 126 134 ADJ. POT. INT. 126 121 119 119 120 122 121 114 110 110 110 109 113 117 120 123 134 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.7 -53.7 -54.1 -54.4 -54.3 -54.4 -54.3 -54.6 -54.2 -54.2 -54.3 -54.5 -54.3 -54.2 -53.6 -53.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 7 6 7 6 7 7 8 8 700-500 MB RH 69 71 72 70 68 65 56 41 39 38 39 38 33 32 34 32 34 MODEL VTX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -34 -27 -35 -45 -55 -42 -61 -77 -87 -93 -94 -82 -62 -43 -33 -25 -19 200 MB DIV 47 61 45 27 15 -18 -41 -41 -17 -47 -43 -21 -2 -41 -26 -47 -35 700-850 TADV 6 7 4 5 7 1 2 -1 1 2 4 -4 -3 -4 -4 -4 -4 LAND (KM) 561 469 460 455 492 628 758 882 931 984 1037 1015 906 813 659 504 285 LAT (DEG N) 12.0 12.1 12.4 12.7 13.2 14.1 14.3 14.3 14.3 14.6 14.9 14.6 13.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 56.0 56.9 57.1 57.3 57.2 56.3 55.0 53.7 53.2 52.8 52.4 51.9 52.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 6 4 4 5 6 7 4 2 2 2 4 6 7 8 9 11 HEAT CONTENT 17 24 22 19 15 14 14 10 9 9 9 7 7 12 16 23 63 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 16 CX,CY: -15/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 1004 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 5.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 11. 14. 17. 19. 19. 20. 20. 20. 20. 19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -9. -16. -23. -29. -35. -37. -39. -41. -43. -44. -44. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. -9. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -1. -3. -5. -6. -8. -7. -5. -4. -4. -6. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. -1. -3. -5. -12. -19. -26. -33. -39. -40. -40. -40. -37. -32. -28. -24. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 12.0 56.0 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL872023 TEST 04/26/23 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 3.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 27.9 30.1 to 2.3 0.08 0.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 19.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.13 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.83 1.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 115.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.82 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.0 2.9 to -2.9 0.51 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 86.1 28.3 to 146.3 0.49 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 39.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.32 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.3% 12.9% 8.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.2% 3.8% 1.8% 0.6% 0.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.9% 5.7% 3.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL872023 TEST 04/26/23 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL872023 TEST 04/26/2023 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 35 34 32 30 23 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 35 34 33 31 29 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 35 32 31 29 27 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 23 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT