* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TEST AL882023 05/25/23 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 41 44 49 52 58 65 74 79 101 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 40 41 44 49 48 54 61 69 72 94 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 40 40 39 38 36 37 41 43 42 45 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 47 40 45 42 45 38 40 50 49 49 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 4 5 7 3 3 13 24 29 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 235 228 238 243 252 265 247 251 273 309 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 16.0 12.2 6.1 3.2 2.6 5.3 4.0 5.4 3.8 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 73 70 68 67 66 68 68 71 71 71 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -57.4 -57.0 -57.0 -57.6 -57.6 -55.9 -54.7 -55.0 -54.4 -52.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.7 -0.5 -0.1 1.8 2.8 2.2 1.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 67 65 61 54 48 47 52 62 67 64 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 18 19 18 17 16 17 21 20 17 16 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 123 127 123 93 60 40 41 37 10 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 81 74 72 69 52 55 78 -2 -36 -40 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 58 35 40 38 24 21 -6 39 147 101 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 474 370 290 67 40 446 811 694 28 481 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 40.7 42.4 44.3 46.2 48.1 52.3 57.2 61.9 66.3 66.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 60.8 58.8 56.4 54.2 52.3 49.0 45.1 36.3 19.7 -1.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 20 24 25 24 23 25 28 38 44 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 40/ 18 CX,CY: 12/ 14 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 737 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 8.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -2. -2. -1. 1. 4. 6. 13. 17. 31. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 9. 12. 17. 24. 36. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -10. -12. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 4. 7. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. 2. -1. -6. -7. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 3. 4. 6. 7. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 9. 12. 18. 25. 34. 39. 61. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 40.7 60.8 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL882023 TEST 05/25/23 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 58.7 45.1 to 6.7 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.77 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.47 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.9 to -3.0 0.59 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 28.3 27.0 to 144.1 0.01 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 69.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.46 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 126.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.80 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 96.0 109.3 to 0.0 0.12 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 999.0% 999.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL882023 TEST 05/25/23 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL882023 TEST 05/25/2023 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 41 44 49 48 54 61 69 72 94 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 40 39 42 47 46 52 59 67 70 92 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 40 37 36 41 40 46 53 61 64 86 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 29 35 42 50 53 75 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT