* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TEST AL882023 05/31/23 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 37 41 45 48 49 55 62 68 80 96 103 117 123 120 119 111 V (KT) LAND 35 37 41 45 48 49 55 62 68 80 96 103 117 123 120 119 111 V (KT) LGEM 35 35 36 37 38 39 41 42 41 43 44 44 46 48 48 46 44 Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 39 37 31 23 18 21 24 33 31 40 39 40 33 27 17 20 31 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -3 0 0 0 -8 -2 1 8 0 -2 0 0 0 0 1 0 SHEAR DIR 260 266 278 286 301 314 293 298 272 258 263 276 287 303 309 320 329 SST (C) 20.7 19.9 19.9 19.5 19.2 15.8 7.2 3.3 4.0 5.4 6.3 5.8 8.0 17.0 18.7 18.6 20.4 POT. INT. (KT) 86 82 80 78 78 73 66 63 61 60 60 61 62 71 74 74 79 200 MB T (C) -57.8 -58.0 -57.6 -57.3 -56.8 -55.4 -54.1 -52.3 -52.8 -54.5 -56.2 -57.0 -57.9 -58.3 -58.2 -58.3 -58.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.2 1.0 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.6 1.6 1.0 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 700-500 MB RH 49 48 49 50 49 49 49 57 57 50 47 42 41 40 45 44 41 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 13 15 18 16 19 17 15 13 13 9 11 11 10 8 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 126 115 103 93 106 105 78 119 76 19 -28 -20 -23 -21 -25 -27 -43 200 MB DIV 34 14 7 18 7 -2 -16 -40 -31 -51 -13 -22 -28 -23 -28 -43 -37 700-850 TADV 13 8 8 0 -9 -4 6 9 6 3 1 -6 -10 -6 -4 -4 -3 LAND (KM) 1361 1451 1507 1504 1426 1089 625 277 169 235 336 420 558 719 865 1008 1163 LAT (DEG N) 38.4 39.3 40.2 41.2 42.5 45.5 47.0 46.6 45.6 44.6 43.7 43.2 42.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 40.8 38.3 36.6 35.8 35.9 38.7 44.4 49.2 51.5 52.3 52.1 50.9 49.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 22 19 13 12 15 20 20 13 7 5 5 7 8 8 6 7 8 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 65/ 23 CX,CY: 21/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 562 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 9.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. 3. 10. 22. 38. 48. 61. 69. 72. 79. 72. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 4. 5. 6. 8. 10. 12. 13. 15. 17. 20. 21. 21. 19. 21. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 2. 4. 7. 9. 10. 11. 12. 14. 14. 14. 11. 9. 6. 2. -8. -14. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -4. -4. -4. -2. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 3. 1. 4. 2. -1. -5. -7. -13. -11. -12. -14. -17. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 9. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -5. -5. -6. -8. -10. -11. -11. -11. -13. -14. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. -6. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 6. 10. 13. 14. 20. 27. 33. 45. 61. 69. 82. 88. 85. 84. 76. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 38.4 40.8 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL882023 TEST 05/31/23 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 37.3 45.1 to 6.7 0.20 0.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.75 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.33 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.9 to -3.0 0.60 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 38.8 27.0 to 144.1 0.10 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 16.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.21 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 155.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.76 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 100.0 109.3 to 0.0 0.09 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.7% 8.6% 6.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.7% 2.9% 2.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL882023 TEST 05/31/23 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL882023 TEST 05/31/2023 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 37 41 45 48 49 55 62 68 80 96 103 117 123 120 119 111 18HR AGO 35 34 38 42 45 46 52 59 65 77 93 100 114 120 117 116 108 12HR AGO 35 32 31 35 38 39 45 52 58 70 86 93 107 113 110 109 101 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 28 29 35 42 48 60 76 83 97 103 100 99 91 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT