* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TEST AL882023 05/31/23 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 42 45 49 51 54 57 63 72 84 97 105 119 126 125 126 118 V (KT) LAND 40 42 45 49 51 54 57 63 72 84 97 105 119 126 125 126 118 V (KT) LGEM 40 42 43 43 44 46 46 45 45 45 44 47 52 53 49 46 44 Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 38 36 27 19 15 19 22 39 41 40 37 34 28 26 28 46 62 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 0 -2 -7 -5 -4 -1 3 1 7 2 0 0 0 -5 -8 SHEAR DIR 263 269 273 277 279 312 291 293 267 260 265 280 302 328 317 307 307 SST (C) 20.5 20.0 19.9 19.5 19.2 15.8 7.1 2.9 3.5 4.1 4.7 10.0 16.4 16.2 17.8 18.2 20.0 POT. INT. (KT) 83 81 80 78 78 73 66 63 60 60 61 64 70 69 72 74 81 200 MB T (C) -57.7 -57.3 -57.3 -57.1 -56.5 -55.6 -54.0 -52.6 -53.7 -55.4 -56.2 -57.2 -58.0 -58.0 -57.4 -56.5 -54.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.9 1.4 1.5 1.1 1.8 1.6 0.9 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 700-500 MB RH 49 48 49 49 49 51 51 58 56 54 48 43 40 40 40 42 41 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 14 15 15 17 17 14 16 14 12 10 15 16 16 15 16 850 MB ENV VOR 125 117 95 103 116 114 86 83 37 -4 -18 -11 -10 -26 -49 -50 -41 200 MB DIV 27 17 8 14 6 0 -19 -19 -39 -51 -40 -10 -21 -41 -39 -67 -38 700-850 TADV 15 6 6 5 8 0 1 6 8 1 -6 -9 -1 -2 -4 -9 -11 LAND (KM) 1401 1478 1513 1497 1419 1074 631 304 181 214 342 532 750 937 1094 1274 1547 LAT (DEG N) 38.6 39.2 40.1 41.2 42.5 45.5 47.1 46.9 46.1 45.3 44.6 44.1 43.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 39.9 38.0 36.6 35.9 36.0 38.9 44.3 48.7 50.8 51.1 49.8 47.3 44.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 16 15 13 12 15 20 18 11 6 5 8 10 9 8 8 11 15 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 65/ 16 CX,CY: 15/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 677 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 12.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -0. 6. 18. 34. 43. 49. 56. 60. 67. 60. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 9. 11. 13. 16. 19. 22. 24. 24. 22. 23. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 2. 5. 7. 9. 10. 11. 12. 14. 15. 15. 12. 9. 6. 2. -9. -14. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -3. -4. -4. -4. -2. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. -2. -1. -4. -9. -13. -5. -4. -6. -7. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -9. -9. -10. -11. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -6. -5. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -3. -3. -1. 0. 1. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 9. 11. 14. 17. 23. 33. 44. 57. 65. 79. 86. 85. 86. 78. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 38.6 39.9 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL882023 TEST 05/31/23 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 32.8 45.1 to 6.7 0.32 0.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.83 1.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.47 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.0 2.9 to -3.0 0.66 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 32.7 27.0 to 144.1 0.05 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 14.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.21 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 166.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.75 0.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 100.0 109.3 to 0.0 0.09 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.6% 12.1% 9.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.4% 4.1% 3.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL882023 TEST 05/31/23 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL882023 TEST 05/31/2023 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 42 45 49 51 54 57 63 72 84 97 105 119 126 125 126 118 18HR AGO 40 39 42 46 48 51 54 60 69 81 94 102 116 123 122 123 115 12HR AGO 40 37 36 40 42 45 48 54 63 75 88 96 110 117 116 117 109 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 32 35 38 44 53 65 78 86 100 107 106 107 99 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT