* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912023 05/31/23 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 24 26 28 28 26 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 20 22 24 26 28 28 26 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 20 20 20 19 19 18 17 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 30 37 43 34 34 41 42 35 41 57 65 80 86 91 91 91 63 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 -4 -7 -10 -3 -6 2 -1 -1 -10 -10 -18 -20 -26 -29 -12 SHEAR DIR 252 249 271 277 270 278 268 269 263 254 236 241 244 256 270 278 289 SST (C) 28.1 27.6 26.8 26.1 25.8 26.0 26.5 27.0 28.5 28.5 26.4 25.0 23.2 21.9 20.8 20.9 21.7 POT. INT. (KT) 137 130 120 113 109 110 116 122 144 145 121 110 98 91 86 84 87 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.6 -52.9 -53.3 -53.3 -53.2 -52.7 -52.0 -51.0 -51.7 -52.7 -52.7 -53.5 -53.8 -54.5 -55.2 -56.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.9 2.0 1.6 1.3 1.8 1.1 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 4 4 5 4 6 5 7 7 7 5 4 3 1 1 1 700-500 MB RH 63 62 59 59 60 57 53 50 51 51 58 60 68 68 65 55 47 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 9 9 10 10 10 10 8 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 44 51 28 15 31 42 43 55 52 56 48 42 51 24 7 -38 -29 200 MB DIV 37 16 2 0 22 -45 -66 -58 -52 -36 14 41 44 55 27 24 21 700-850 TADV 4 0 8 3 -4 -15 -10 -15 -3 1 -2 15 1 34 60 43 35 LAND (KM) 343 274 227 192 153 121 88 44 -58 104 387 758 998 1125 1100 948 952 LAT (DEG N) 26.4 26.9 27.4 28.0 28.4 28.6 28.2 27.4 26.9 26.8 27.9 29.7 32.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 85.9 85.4 85.1 84.8 84.5 84.1 83.7 83.1 81.5 79.0 75.6 71.1 65.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 6 6 4 2 4 5 10 14 19 24 27 25 22 16 14 HEAT CONTENT 22 10 4 0 0 0 1 5 17 39 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 45/ 7 CX,CY: 5/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 643 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 21.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -1. -0. 2. 6. 11. 15. 20. 23. 23. 24. 25. 27. 28. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 5. 7. 8. 7. 2. -6. -16. -27. -38. -45. -51. -55. -58. -58. -57. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. -0. -1. -4. -8. -11. -12. -13. -14. -14. -15. -16. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. 0. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 8. 8. 6. -1. -9. -18. -26. -29. -35. -37. -36. -32. -27. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 26.4 85.9 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912023 INVEST 05/31/23 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 39.6 45.1 to 6.7 0.14 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 7.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.04 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.55 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.68 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 84.7 27.0 to 144.1 0.49 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 15.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.21 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 51.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.87 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 61.5 109.3 to 0.0 0.44 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 1.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912023 INVEST 05/31/23 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912023 INVEST 05/31/2023 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 22 24 26 28 28 26 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 20 19 21 23 25 25 23 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 20 17 16 18 20 20 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT