* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912023 06/01/23 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 32 33 33 30 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 32 33 33 30 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 28 27 27 25 22 25 20 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type EXTP EXTP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 41 34 34 39 43 42 45 48 61 74 80 80 80 81 89 79 71 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -8 -8 -6 -4 -8 0 -9 0 -12 -2 -6 -3 -14 -25 -14 -9 SHEAR DIR 266 276 277 273 277 274 267 253 241 232 237 237 253 272 288 294 296 SST (C) 27.4 26.9 26.5 26.2 26.1 26.1 26.7 29.0 28.6 26.7 25.7 24.4 22.8 22.1 21.9 22.0 23.2 POT. INT. (KT) 126 120 115 112 111 112 119 151 146 123 115 107 98 93 90 91 98 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.6 -52.6 -52.7 -52.2 -52.0 -51.3 -50.8 -51.4 -52.4 -52.2 -52.0 -52.3 -53.7 -54.2 -53.9 -53.4 200 MB VXT (C) 1.5 1.7 1.7 1.7 2.0 1.6 1.6 0.8 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 6 5 4 7 6 7 7 6 4 3 3 2 2 2 2 700-500 MB RH 57 55 55 55 56 51 47 50 48 55 51 57 59 55 47 40 32 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 10 11 10 11 12 11 9 7 7 6 6 3 3 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 19 5 23 30 27 54 61 59 77 71 44 56 66 44 -37 -53 -42 200 MB DIV -5 -10 -8 -11 -27 -62 -49 -53 -11 7 13 39 67 29 -22 -48 -45 700-850 TADV 10 4 -2 -11 -9 -8 -16 -5 -7 -13 2 -17 0 28 16 -17 -8 LAND (KM) 283 236 201 190 182 120 85 0 48 271 636 972 1290 1330 1494 1908 2192 LAT (DEG N) 27.2 27.6 27.9 28.0 27.9 27.5 26.9 26.5 26.5 27.3 28.5 30.6 32.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 85.8 85.6 85.4 85.1 84.7 84.0 83.3 81.9 79.6 76.7 72.8 67.2 59.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 3 3 3 4 5 9 11 16 22 32 35 29 22 24 24 HEAT CONTENT 10 5 2 0 0 0 2 33 38 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 5/ 4 CX,CY: 0/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 705 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 29.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -1. -0. 2. 5. 10. 14. 18. 20. 20. 22. 22. 23. 26. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 4. 5. 6. 5. -1. -11. -23. -37. -51. -56. -60. -62. -64. -65. -68. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. -3. -6. -8. -11. -13. -16. -17. -20. -21. -20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 2. 3. 3. 4. 6. 7. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -4. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 7. 8. 8. 5. -1. -12. -22. -34. -38. -46. -45. -46. -42. -41. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 27.2 85.8 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912023 INVEST 06/01/23 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 2.1 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 41.2 45.1 to 6.7 0.10 0.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 3.4 0.0 to 161.7 0.02 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.34 0.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.9 to -3.0 0.63 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 74.1 27.0 to 144.1 0.40 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : -12.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.08 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 93.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.83 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 60.5 109.3 to 0.0 0.45 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.4% 5.4% 4.0% 2.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.7% 0.9% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.7% 2.1% 1.5% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912023 INVEST 06/01/23 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912023 INVEST 06/01/2023 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 28 31 32 33 33 30 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 25 24 27 28 29 29 26 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 25 22 21 22 23 23 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 16 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT