* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912023 06/01/23 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 36 37 37 36 32 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 33 36 37 37 36 32 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 33 35 36 36 34 31 27 22 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type EXTP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP TROP EXTP TROP SHEAR (KT) 36 33 37 44 42 38 36 48 61 71 66 60 51 43 36 31 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -8 -4 -4 -5 -9 -4 3 3 -5 -2 0 5 2 -1 3 7 6 SHEAR DIR 275 278 274 279 283 279 270 245 235 234 241 238 250 249 268 261 267 SST (C) 26.8 26.6 26.5 26.6 26.9 27.5 27.9 28.9 29.1 27.2 26.2 25.6 25.5 24.8 24.5 24.8 25.0 POT. INT. (KT) 120 116 115 117 121 129 135 151 155 129 119 116 116 110 107 109 110 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.4 -52.1 -51.6 -51.5 -51.3 -50.1 -50.4 -51.6 -52.2 -52.7 -52.2 -52.5 -52.6 -53.0 -53.3 -53.4 200 MB VXT (C) 1.8 1.7 1.9 2.2 2.2 1.4 1.7 1.1 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 4 5 6 7 8 8 6 4 3 3 4 5 5 4 700-500 MB RH 53 53 52 51 48 45 44 43 48 55 52 46 41 40 35 35 35 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 11 10 11 11 12 11 9 7 7 5 6 4 3 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 4 17 17 15 26 67 62 91 75 82 29 -1 -37 -48 -47 -4 -1 200 MB DIV 0 -18 -37 -44 -67 -71 -42 -51 1 18 14 -41 -13 -7 -26 -6 -28 700-850 TADV 5 -1 -5 -6 -10 -10 -9 -10 -2 -15 -2 -14 -12 -19 -8 -16 -2 LAND (KM) 228 196 190 209 252 293 254 127 87 204 603 974 1204 1572 1992 2397 1879 LAT (DEG N) 27.9 28.3 28.3 28.0 27.5 26.3 25.1 24.3 24.6 25.8 27.0 28.1 28.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 86.4 86.5 86.4 86.2 85.9 85.3 84.2 82.0 79.3 76.1 72.3 66.9 59.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 2 2 5 6 7 9 12 14 17 21 28 33 32 28 26 24 HEAT CONTENT 6 4 3 4 7 12 11 41 41 7 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):340/ 5 CX,CY: -1/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 777 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 47.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. -0. 2. 5. 9. 14. 17. 20. 21. 21. 21. 22. 23. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 4. 2. -4. -14. -26. -41. -53. -57. -59. -59. -58. -57. -55. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. -1. -4. -8. -10. -14. -14. -18. -19. -20. -21. -20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 2. 4. 5. 6. 8. 10. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -1. 0. 1. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 7. 7. 6. 2. -5. -15. -26. -38. -39. -45. -44. -39. -33. -30. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 27.9 86.4 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912023 INVEST 06/01/23 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 41.3 45.1 to 6.7 0.10 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 4.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.03 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.35 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.20 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.50 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 69.5 27.0 to 144.1 0.36 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -33.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 123.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.80 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 77.7 109.3 to 0.0 0.29 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.6% 2.0% 1.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.1% 0.7% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912023 INVEST 06/01/23 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912023 INVEST 06/01/2023 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 33 36 37 37 36 32 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 30 29 32 33 33 32 28 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 30 27 26 27 27 26 22 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 20 19 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT