* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TWO AL022023 06/01/23 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 34 35 31 25 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 34 35 31 25 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 31 32 32 31 29 25 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 35 40 44 42 42 48 46 49 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -5 -5 -8 -7 4 3 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 273 274 278 279 283 287 260 253 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.8 26.8 27.0 27.3 27.8 28.2 28.6 29.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 118 117 121 125 133 139 145 158 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -51.9 -51.7 -51.4 -51.1 -50.0 -49.9 -51.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.9 1.9 2.2 2.5 1.8 2.2 1.6 0.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 5 7 6 9 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 53 52 50 47 44 37 32 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 10 10 11 11 12 11 9 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 24 26 12 21 36 54 39 64 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -18 -35 -64 -69 -61 -45 -33 -45 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 -5 -8 -13 -10 -16 -2 -6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 214 224 234 279 327 375 215 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 28.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 86.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 3 1 3 5 7 8 8 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 6 6 8 11 18 63 63 74 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):340/ 5 CX,CY: -1/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 767 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 43.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. 0. 2. 6. 11. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 4. 1. -5. -17. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. 0. -1. -4. -7. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 4. 5. 1. -5. -14. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 28.1 86.5 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL022023 TWO 06/01/23 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 44.4 45.1 to 6.7 0.02 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 9.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.06 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.40 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.20 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.50 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 73.9 27.0 to 144.1 0.40 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -49.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 112.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.81 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 88.9 109.3 to 0.0 0.19 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 0.7% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL022023 TWO 06/01/23 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL022023 TWO 06/01/2023 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 32 34 34 35 31 25 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 30 29 31 31 32 28 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 30 27 26 26 27 23 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 21 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT