* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922023 06/17/23 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 20 20 21 24 29 36 43 49 54 58 59 62 67 74 82 V (KT) LAND 20 20 20 20 21 24 29 36 43 49 54 58 59 62 67 74 82 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 20 21 21 21 22 23 24 26 28 30 32 34 37 42 47 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 1 3 7 7 12 12 18 17 17 15 19 21 14 10 7 1 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 11 8 8 6 5 1 6 2 -1 -2 -5 -8 -5 -3 -3 -4 3 SHEAR DIR 294 311 247 240 227 188 187 174 156 141 81 77 67 100 43 73 23 SST (C) 27.2 27.6 28.1 28.0 27.7 27.4 27.0 28.0 27.8 28.3 28.2 28.2 28.3 28.3 28.4 28.6 28.8 POT. INT. (KT) 126 133 140 139 136 132 128 139 135 141 138 136 137 138 141 144 148 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.2 -52.5 -52.7 -52.7 -52.9 -53.4 -53.1 -53.3 -53.1 -53.4 -53.3 -53.3 -53.1 -53.4 -53.4 -53.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 3 4 4 5 6 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 700-500 MB RH 76 75 75 76 74 74 66 62 58 52 53 54 58 58 57 57 60 MODEL VTX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 35 40 47 51 50 63 66 64 56 46 41 34 8 23 20 44 44 200 MB DIV 32 17 24 9 9 -1 41 72 98 94 68 20 -30 -13 -5 20 45 700-850 TADV -3 -3 -2 -1 0 4 12 7 1 0 -1 0 0 0 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 1103 1223 1365 1528 1705 1638 1436 1120 883 677 542 466 457 512 598 636 547 LAT (DEG N) 10.0 10.2 10.4 10.7 11.0 11.5 11.6 11.6 11.4 10.8 10.1 9.6 9.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 26.6 27.8 29.3 31.0 32.8 36.6 40.6 44.4 47.6 50.0 51.5 52.2 52.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 13 16 17 18 19 20 17 14 11 6 2 2 4 6 7 9 HEAT CONTENT 10 21 38 30 18 20 9 42 16 42 40 34 35 44 55 55 58 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 594 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 38.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 7.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 7. 16. 27. 37. 47. 56. 61. 66. 69. 70. 73. 73. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 4. 0. -5. -9. -14. -19. -21. -20. -21. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 1. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -0. -0. 0. 1. 4. 9. 16. 23. 29. 34. 38. 39. 42. 47. 54. 62. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 10.0 26.6 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922023 INVEST 06/17/23 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 21.4 45.1 to 6.7 0.62 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 23.4 0.0 to 161.7 0.14 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.70 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.9 to -3.0 0.45 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.6 27.0 to 144.1 0.75 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 18.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.22 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 49.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.87 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.0% 7.0% 3.3% 0.9% 0.4% 2.5% 2.0% 2.5% Bayesian: 0.3% 4.3% 1.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.4% 0.2% 0.2% Consensus: 0.7% 3.8% 1.5% 0.3% 0.2% 1.0% 0.7% 0.9% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922023 INVEST 06/17/2023 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 20 20 20 21 24 29 36 43 49 54 58 59 62 67 74 82 18HR AGO 20 19 19 19 20 23 28 35 42 48 53 57 58 61 66 73 81 12HR AGO 20 17 16 16 17 20 25 32 39 45 50 54 55 58 63 70 78 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT