* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP902023 06/17/23 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 20 20 22 30 37 39 37 30 25 21 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 20 20 20 20 22 30 37 39 37 30 25 21 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 20 20 20 20 20 21 21 21 19 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 16 18 18 19 18 11 7 12 21 26 27 32 33 40 34 36 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 12 8 2 0 -3 -4 0 3 12 9 13 9 12 8 4 -2 0 SHEAR DIR 67 74 74 75 78 95 168 241 243 232 248 223 208 209 236 256 295 SST (C) 29.6 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.3 27.9 27.0 25.2 23.2 21.3 20.4 19.6 18.6 21.7 23.8 24.4 25.2 POT. INT. (KT) 161 160 160 160 159 145 135 116 95 74 65 62 64 81 103 109 116 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.0 -52.2 -52.1 -51.9 -52.2 -52.4 -52.2 -52.2 -52.1 -52.8 -52.5 -52.0 -52.2 -51.8 -51.4 -50.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 9 8 7 5 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 0 3 700-500 MB RH 56 57 58 62 62 63 59 52 48 41 35 29 28 26 24 24 24 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 7 6 7 7 8 6 5 4 3 4 3 3 2 2 2 850 MB ENV VOR -28 -23 -28 -33 -34 -22 -11 -28 -50 -61 -85 -76 -31 6 19 27 -25 200 MB DIV 44 32 25 -4 7 40 33 26 4 -9 6 16 14 27 3 20 -47 700-850 TADV 1 3 2 1 3 4 6 10 18 22 6 -29 -72 -51 -6 13 11 LAND (KM) 929 953 967 992 1009 1083 1055 1050 1036 1002 879 641 281 -66 -185 -518 -806 LAT (DEG N) 10.6 10.8 11.1 11.5 12.0 13.3 14.9 16.6 18.5 20.3 22.1 23.9 25.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 106.6 107.6 108.4 109.4 110.5 112.9 115.4 117.5 119.5 120.8 121.1 119.7 116.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 9 11 13 14 14 13 13 9 10 13 18 17 17 15 13 HEAT CONTENT 30 25 23 22 21 28 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 577 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 30.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. 1. 9. 19. 28. 33. 35. 34. 33. 31. 30. 28. 28. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -3. -6. -8. -11. -12. -14. -15. -17. -22. -25. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -4. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. 0. 1. 1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -4. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -10. -10. -10. -10. -8. -9. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -0. -0. 0. 2. 10. 17. 19. 17. 10. 5. 1. -3. -8. -14. -21. -26. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 10.6 106.6 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP902023 INVEST 06/17/23 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 139.9 36.9 to 148.5 0.92 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 30.2 30.9 to 7.7 0.03 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 90.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.81 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 20.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.28 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.51 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 24.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.21 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 49.8 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.2 to -2.3 0.36 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.7% 6.5% 1.7% 0.8% 0.2% 2.3% 1.0% 2.7% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.2% 2.3% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.8% 0.4% 0.9% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902023 INVEST 06/17/23 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##