* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP902023 06/18/23 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 21 23 25 32 41 43 42 37 32 28 24 19 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 20 20 21 23 25 32 41 43 42 37 32 28 24 19 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 20 20 20 21 21 23 25 25 23 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 14 15 14 11 6 7 14 19 27 26 28 29 33 33 29 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 10 3 -1 -3 -4 -3 -2 5 8 7 12 6 9 13 12 7 4 SHEAR DIR 73 70 71 76 83 132 203 255 244 277 261 247 216 207 205 221 215 SST (C) 29.4 29.3 29.3 29.3 28.8 27.6 26.8 25.4 23.7 22.3 22.0 20.5 19.6 18.6 19.3 24.0 23.4 POT. INT. (KT) 159 158 158 158 154 141 133 119 100 84 81 66 63 63 63 104 97 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -52.0 -52.0 -51.8 -51.8 -52.4 -52.2 -52.4 -52.1 -52.4 -52.6 -52.2 -52.0 -52.1 -51.5 -51.8 -51.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 8 7 7 4 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 4 700-500 MB RH 57 58 63 63 64 64 60 53 48 42 36 31 25 26 24 27 25 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 850 MB ENV VOR -23 -24 -30 -30 -32 -15 -10 -27 -48 -62 -77 -90 -72 -30 -16 17 -12 200 MB DIV 31 27 9 3 25 33 26 11 -12 11 -1 -3 -1 22 46 21 -11 700-850 TADV 3 0 -1 1 3 1 6 7 16 19 7 -16 -55 -59 -39 -2 -10 LAND (KM) 973 1010 1042 1070 1103 1165 1137 1182 1182 1164 1077 904 610 279 -5 -72 -312 LAT (DEG N) 10.7 10.9 11.2 11.6 12.1 13.3 14.8 16.3 18.0 19.5 21.1 22.5 24.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 107.8 108.8 109.8 110.9 112.0 114.4 116.6 118.9 120.9 122.2 122.7 121.8 119.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 11 12 13 13 13 14 11 9 8 11 15 15 15 13 10 HEAT CONTENT 24 21 21 22 28 32 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 560 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 56.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -0. 1. 9. 19. 28. 33. 35. 35. 34. 30. 28. 27. 27. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. -2. -4. -7. -9. -10. -11. -13. -17. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -0. -0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -4. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 3. 5. 12. 21. 23. 22. 17. 12. 8. 4. -1. -6. -12. -18. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 10.7 107.8 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP902023 INVEST 06/18/23 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 137.4 36.9 to 148.5 0.90 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 23.2 30.9 to 7.7 0.33 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 87.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.81 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 19.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.27 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.50 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 23.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.20 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 49.8 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.2 to -2.3 0.40 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 3.1% 1.0% 0.4% 0.1% 1.8% 6.9% 6.5% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 1.4% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.6% 2.3% 2.2% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902023 INVEST 06/18/23 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##