* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922023 06/18/23 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 32 36 41 48 59 69 79 89 94 99 102 101 93 94 98 V (KT) LAND 25 28 32 36 41 48 59 69 79 89 94 99 102 101 93 94 98 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 30 33 35 40 45 53 63 73 81 86 90 90 84 81 79 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 1 3 7 10 10 8 7 7 3 7 10 5 18 20 29 20 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 4 0 0 1 0 0 0 5 3 -2 -1 -2 1 10 11 2 SHEAR DIR 238 140 146 151 163 137 155 115 76 14 310 296 256 244 237 214 219 SST (C) 28.4 28.1 27.9 27.7 27.8 27.5 27.5 28.1 27.8 27.7 28.0 28.3 28.3 28.2 27.9 28.2 28.0 POT. INT. (KT) 144 140 137 134 136 132 131 139 133 131 135 141 142 141 137 142 138 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.8 -52.5 -52.9 -53.1 -52.8 -53.5 -52.9 -53.5 -52.8 -53.1 -52.7 -53.3 -52.9 -53.6 -53.9 -54.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.1 1.2 0.7 0.9 TH_E DEV (C) 3 4 4 4 4 5 6 7 7 8 7 7 8 8 7 6 5 700-500 MB RH 76 76 77 77 75 69 65 58 55 53 57 59 58 59 63 72 73 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 13 14 15 16 16 19 20 20 23 23 24 25 25 21 23 26 850 MB ENV VOR 58 58 55 54 53 50 53 34 23 11 4 2 7 10 10 15 -14 200 MB DIV 25 29 23 43 47 46 78 91 80 54 9 5 41 62 84 92 40 700-850 TADV -4 -5 -2 0 1 2 1 0 -2 0 -2 2 5 12 27 29 30 LAND (KM) 1526 1655 1599 1563 1525 1497 1266 1099 964 885 875 966 889 845 820 926 1137 LAT (DEG N) 9.7 9.8 10.0 10.3 10.4 10.9 11.3 11.7 11.7 11.9 12.4 13.7 15.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 30.6 32.1 33.5 35.0 36.4 39.5 42.3 44.8 46.8 48.2 49.2 50.2 51.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 14 14 15 15 13 11 8 6 6 10 13 14 16 16 14 HEAT CONTENT 33 20 15 16 23 18 15 37 14 19 36 40 30 29 17 15 13 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 530 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 71.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 21.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 16. 26. 35. 44. 52. 56. 60. 62. 61. 61. 60. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. 5. 2. -1. -4. -7. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -5. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 6. 7. 8. 11. 11. 11. 12. 11. 5. 5. 9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. -0. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 11. 16. 23. 34. 44. 54. 64. 69. 74. 77. 76. 68. 69. 73. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 9.7 30.6 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922023 INVEST 06/18/23 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 4.3 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 17.1 45.1 to 6.7 0.73 2.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 21.4 0.0 to 161.7 0.13 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.61 1.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.9 to -3.0 0.57 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 113.2 27.0 to 144.1 0.74 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 33.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.29 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 57.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.87 1.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.7% 17.7% 12.0% 7.5% 0.0% 0.0% 13.7% 0.0% Logistic: 5.4% 32.0% 14.9% 3.3% 2.9% 10.8% 14.0% 11.8% Bayesian: 1.1% 12.3% 2.3% 0.2% 0.2% 1.7% 6.1% 3.4% Consensus: 3.4% 20.7% 9.7% 3.7% 1.0% 4.2% 11.2% 5.1% DTOPS: 1.0% 7.0% 4.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 2.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922023 INVEST 06/18/2023 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 28 32 36 41 48 59 69 79 89 94 99 102 101 93 94 98 18HR AGO 25 24 28 32 37 44 55 65 75 85 90 95 98 97 89 90 94 12HR AGO 25 22 21 25 30 37 48 58 68 78 83 88 91 90 82 83 87 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 20 27 38 48 58 68 73 78 81 80 72 73 77 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT