* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922023 06/18/23 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 31 35 40 50 61 70 79 85 89 94 94 93 92 92 98 V (KT) LAND 25 27 31 35 40 50 61 70 79 85 89 94 94 93 92 92 98 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 30 32 34 39 47 56 65 74 81 87 89 87 84 84 87 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 9 9 11 7 10 8 11 5 6 9 13 19 23 22 24 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 0 0 0 0 -3 1 3 11 7 3 -2 -2 -1 5 1 0 SHEAR DIR 160 161 155 160 139 118 84 101 54 218 279 232 262 255 266 226 224 SST (C) 28.3 28.1 27.9 28.1 28.4 27.7 27.9 27.7 28.1 28.7 28.8 28.9 28.6 28.6 28.5 28.6 28.4 POT. INT. (KT) 143 140 137 140 144 135 137 134 138 147 149 150 145 145 144 147 144 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.5 -52.9 -53.3 -53.3 -53.3 -53.2 -52.9 -53.1 -52.8 -53.1 -53.0 -53.2 -53.2 -53.8 -54.0 -54.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 5 6 7 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 700-500 MB RH 77 78 78 76 73 66 59 53 49 49 50 49 48 48 54 55 56 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 13 14 15 17 19 20 21 22 23 23 24 24 23 23 22 25 850 MB ENV VOR 60 53 53 59 54 58 56 43 37 35 34 43 45 49 46 46 42 200 MB DIV 30 25 30 47 44 122 115 111 50 -10 0 -7 20 6 39 7 20 700-850 TADV -4 -1 0 2 2 0 -1 0 -1 -5 -6 0 3 1 4 4 5 LAND (KM) 1655 1582 1524 1483 1462 1289 1041 912 825 817 663 457 274 263 240 238 437 LAT (DEG N) 9.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 31.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 14 16 16 15 15 16 15 12 11 10 10 10 9 8 10 14 14 HEAT CONTENT 22 16 17 29 29 13 30 14 36 49 46 50 26 27 33 41 25 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 539 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 33.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 19.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 16. 26. 36. 45. 52. 57. 61. 63. 63. 63. 62. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 0. -3. -7. -9. -12. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 11. 11. 8. 7. 4. 7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -2. -3. -3. -2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 6. 10. 15. 25. 36. 45. 54. 60. 64. 69. 69. 68. 67. 67. 73. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 9.7 31.9 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922023 INVEST 06/18/23 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 4.2 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 17.4 45.1 to 6.7 0.72 2.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 22.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.14 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.56 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.9 to -3.0 0.52 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 116.0 27.0 to 144.1 0.76 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 35.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.30 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 61.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.86 1.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.1% 17.2% 11.6% 7.2% 0.0% 0.0% 14.3% 0.0% Logistic: 2.7% 16.0% 6.2% 1.0% 0.7% 4.4% 7.1% 5.0% Bayesian: 0.7% 10.6% 1.7% 0.1% 0.1% 0.7% 3.8% 1.6% Consensus: 2.1% 14.6% 6.5% 2.8% 0.3% 1.7% 8.4% 2.2% DTOPS: 1.0% 7.0% 3.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922023 INVEST 06/18/2023 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 27 31 35 40 50 61 70 79 85 89 94 94 93 92 92 98 18HR AGO 25 24 28 32 37 47 58 67 76 82 86 91 91 90 89 89 95 12HR AGO 25 22 21 25 30 40 51 60 69 75 79 84 84 83 82 82 88 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 20 30 41 50 59 65 69 74 74 73 72 72 78 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT