* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP902023 06/18/23 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 22 24 25 28 27 24 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 20 21 22 24 25 28 27 24 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 20 20 20 21 21 21 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 15 13 8 8 10 17 25 28 29 34 35 31 31 24 28 30 40 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -2 -3 -4 -1 0 7 10 9 10 11 11 10 1 4 7 7 SHEAR DIR 80 86 102 126 156 216 248 240 239 224 226 219 254 264 308 329 5 SST (C) 29.4 29.5 28.8 27.9 27.2 24.9 23.9 21.2 20.2 19.6 18.9 20.8 24.6 25.1 26.5 29.6 29.5 POT. INT. (KT) 159 161 154 145 138 113 103 73 63 62 63 72 111 116 130 163 162 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -51.8 -51.7 -51.9 -52.2 -51.9 -52.4 -52.3 -52.7 -52.7 -52.2 -51.8 -51.7 -50.7 -50.5 -49.7 -50.2 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 7 6 5 2 1 0 0 0 0 3 0 3 3 11 6 700-500 MB RH 59 60 58 56 56 53 47 42 38 31 26 25 24 26 29 33 29 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 4 4 4 4 4 5 4 5 5 3 850 MB ENV VOR -22 -24 -26 -19 -9 -18 -41 -59 -72 -81 -36 -28 54 17 -2 -54 -5 200 MB DIV 13 20 39 37 48 23 20 -11 5 3 20 20 0 13 -11 -41 -33 700-850 TADV 0 4 5 2 1 12 12 19 3 -31 -56 -52 -7 -5 13 46 86 LAND (KM) 953 966 1001 1057 1029 983 974 947 812 600 278 -52 -156 -497 -824 -647 -364 LAT (DEG N) 11.9 12.4 13.1 13.8 14.6 16.5 18.3 20.2 22.0 23.8 25.5 27.4 29.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 109.4 110.4 111.7 113.0 114.3 116.5 118.4 119.9 120.1 119.1 116.5 113.3 110.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 13 14 15 15 13 13 10 9 12 16 17 16 16 15 15 15 HEAT CONTENT 20 22 25 24 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 544 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 33.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. 0. 2. 9. 16. 21. 23. 23. 25. 25. 21. 19. 19. 24. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. -0. -4. -7. -10. -11. -13. -14. -18. -24. -30. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. -0. -2. -4. -4. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -9. -8. -8. -8. -6. -5. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -9. -8. -9. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 7. 4. -1. -5. -7. -7. -11. -16. -20. -20. -20. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 11.9 109.4 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP902023 INVEST 06/18/23 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 131.4 36.9 to 148.5 0.85 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 17.2 30.9 to 7.7 0.59 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 106.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.79 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 31.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.33 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.61 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 19.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.16 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.2 49.8 to 0.0 0.98 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.2 to -2.3 0.38 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 2.9% 1.0% 0.4% 0.2% 0.3% 0.0% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 1.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902023 INVEST 06/18/23 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##