* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922023 06/19/23 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 35 40 50 61 71 80 86 91 95 94 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 35 40 50 61 71 80 86 91 95 94 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 29 31 36 44 53 62 72 78 80 81 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 9 9 4 6 6 3 7 4 5 15 17 19 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 0 -2 0 1 5 10 8 3 -2 -3 -5 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 165 166 135 110 142 76 108 30 270 298 258 276 268 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.9 28.3 28.2 27.6 27.6 28.0 27.7 28.4 28.7 29.0 28.7 28.6 28.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 138 143 141 133 133 138 134 143 148 153 148 146 150 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -53.2 -53.3 -52.9 -53.2 -53.6 -53.2 -53.3 -52.8 -53.2 -52.9 -53.1 -52.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.7 0.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 5 5 6 6 7 8 9 9 9 9 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 76 75 72 70 67 62 56 53 53 54 54 55 53 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 12 14 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 21 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 61 62 57 53 54 38 30 13 12 10 24 33 44 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 7 27 44 55 89 73 90 43 36 12 26 25 -13 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1 -3 -5 -4 -2 3 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1547 1505 1485 1385 1262 1050 908 828 750 490 252 144 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 10.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 35.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 17 17 15 14 14 14 13 13 12 12 12 11 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 22 34 23 13 13 33 14 47 45 54 29 36 51 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 17 CX,CY: -16/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 510 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 80.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 18.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 16. 26. 35. 44. 51. 56. 60. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 8. 9. 6. 3. -1. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 8. 9. 9. 5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 15. 25. 36. 46. 55. 61. 66. 70. 69. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 10.4 35.7 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922023 INVEST 06/19/23 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 14.9 45.1 to 6.7 0.79 2.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 21.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.13 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.61 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.9 to -3.0 0.40 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 112.7 27.0 to 144.1 0.73 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 44.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.34 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 77.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.85 1.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.7% 16.7% 11.1% 7.0% 0.0% 0.0% 13.6% 0.0% Logistic: 3.8% 23.4% 11.1% 3.5% 2.4% 9.6% 9.0% 7.3% Bayesian: 0.6% 12.2% 2.3% 0.3% 0.2% 1.2% 1.9% 1.7% Consensus: 2.4% 17.4% 8.2% 3.6% 0.9% 3.6% 8.2% 3.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 6.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 4.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922023 INVEST 06/19/23 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922023 INVEST 06/19/2023 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 28 31 35 40 50 61 71 80 86 91 95 94 DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 25 24 27 31 36 46 57 67 76 82 87 91 90 DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 25 22 21 25 30 40 51 61 70 76 81 85 84 DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 20 30 41 51 60 66 71 75 74 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT