* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922023 06/19/23 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 38 43 47 56 66 72 77 80 81 79 78 77 78 83 86 V (KT) LAND 30 34 38 43 47 56 66 72 77 80 81 79 78 77 78 83 86 V (KT) LGEM 30 33 36 39 42 49 57 64 70 73 72 68 65 63 65 70 74 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 2 4 4 4 6 4 5 16 18 26 25 24 14 13 2 4 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 0 0 2 6 13 15 9 -1 0 -2 2 0 -4 -1 -1 SHEAR DIR 189 156 106 140 147 94 94 89 264 254 248 257 261 256 236 324 22 SST (C) 28.2 28.2 27.6 27.6 27.8 27.9 28.0 28.7 28.9 28.7 28.7 28.8 29.0 29.0 29.0 28.8 28.8 POT. INT. (KT) 142 142 134 133 136 137 138 149 151 147 146 148 152 152 152 150 150 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.2 -52.9 -53.3 -53.5 -53.2 -53.4 -52.8 -53.0 -53.1 -53.3 -53.2 -53.2 -53.6 -53.9 -53.9 -53.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 4 5 5 6 6 7 7 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 10 9 700-500 MB RH 76 71 69 66 62 60 56 51 50 54 51 54 53 53 50 48 49 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 15 16 17 16 17 19 18 19 19 19 17 17 15 14 14 13 850 MB ENV VOR 61 55 52 55 47 32 22 14 23 33 36 43 39 50 36 17 6 200 MB DIV 10 47 61 77 86 84 79 42 -16 1 3 20 15 27 1 0 -5 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -1 0 5 1 -2 -3 -2 -1 0 2 4 4 7 2 2 LAND (KM) 1518 1494 1385 1259 1144 968 831 772 479 254 122 46 100 102 49 271 399 LAT (DEG N) 10.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 37.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 16 17 16 15 15 14 14 14 12 10 9 10 10 10 11 13 14 HEAT CONTENT 34 25 13 13 25 15 35 47 52 33 33 49 45 36 29 34 32 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 16 CX,CY: -15/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 516 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 80.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 19.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 7. 15. 24. 33. 41. 48. 53. 56. 58. 56. 56. 55. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 8. 4. -2. -8. -12. -14. -13. -13. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -5. -6. -5. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 1. 2. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. -1. -3. -6. -9. -10. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 13. 17. 26. 36. 42. 47. 50. 51. 49. 48. 47. 48. 53. 56. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 10.5 37.1 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922023 INVEST 06/19/23 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 4.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 14.6 45.1 to 6.7 0.79 2.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 22.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.14 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.56 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.20 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.9 to -3.0 0.53 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 107.3 27.0 to 144.1 0.69 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 56.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.40 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 111.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.81 1.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 2.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 17% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.1% 23.0% 12.6% 9.3% 7.1% 12.0% 14.6% 16.8% Logistic: 6.0% 25.8% 13.3% 3.1% 1.6% 8.1% 7.1% 4.5% Bayesian: 2.7% 24.6% 7.9% 0.7% 0.4% 3.8% 7.3% 3.9% Consensus: 4.3% 24.4% 11.3% 4.4% 3.0% 7.9% 9.6% 8.4% DTOPS: 2.0% 7.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% 2.0% 1.0% 3.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922023 INVEST 06/19/23 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922023 INVEST 06/19/2023 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 34 38 43 47 56 66 72 77 80 81 79 78 77 78 83 86 18HR AGO 30 29 33 38 42 51 61 67 72 75 76 74 73 72 73 78 81 12HR AGO 30 27 26 31 35 44 54 60 65 68 69 67 66 65 66 71 74 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 24 33 43 49 54 57 58 56 55 54 55 60 63 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT