* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL932023 06/19/23 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 22 24 26 30 34 38 46 52 57 61 60 57 55 54 56 V (KT) LAND 20 21 22 24 26 30 34 38 46 52 57 61 60 57 55 54 56 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 21 22 22 23 24 25 28 32 37 43 47 47 44 42 40 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 11 15 17 17 18 22 15 4 6 11 24 32 36 39 45 38 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 4 3 3 4 1 -1 -3 0 -3 0 0 3 8 0 -2 2 SHEAR DIR 12 42 36 50 54 52 65 90 76 325 310 278 280 282 277 279 282 SST (C) 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.4 28.2 27.9 27.9 28.1 27.1 26.8 27.1 27.4 27.5 27.6 27.8 27.3 27.2 POT. INT. (KT) 147 146 145 142 138 134 135 138 126 123 127 131 132 133 134 126 124 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -53.0 -53.4 -53.4 -53.1 -53.6 -53.3 -53.5 -53.3 -53.4 -53.2 -53.3 -53.3 -54.1 -54.3 -55.3 -55.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 6 5 6 6 7 6 5 5 4 700-500 MB RH 76 76 75 72 71 70 70 71 63 63 61 61 61 68 72 72 72 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 34 32 19 9 0 -8 -6 17 14 20 2 -18 -48 -75 -65 -70 -39 200 MB DIV 13 19 28 37 69 32 50 22 -20 -23 -9 -10 56 65 108 53 46 700-850 TADV -6 -3 -4 -3 -2 0 -1 0 -2 0 3 16 22 22 33 40 1 LAND (KM) 1405 1547 1596 1560 1537 1507 1502 1525 1524 1424 1382 1386 1282 1235 1240 1299 1347 LAT (DEG N) 8.5 8.6 8.8 9.0 9.2 9.6 10.1 10.7 11.7 12.8 14.4 16.2 18.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 29.0 30.4 31.4 32.4 33.2 34.6 36.1 37.8 39.7 41.7 44.1 46.5 48.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 15 12 10 9 8 7 8 10 11 13 14 15 15 13 10 7 5 HEAT CONTENT 33 34 29 22 17 14 25 33 9 7 16 18 14 17 20 9 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 17 CX,CY: -16/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 419 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 72.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. 0. 1. 7. 17. 28. 38. 48. 56. 60. 64. 65. 64. 64. 62. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. -2. -7. -10. -12. -16. -19. -24. -29. -31. -36. -38. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 3. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -7. -7. -7. -7. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 6. 10. 14. 18. 26. 32. 37. 41. 40. 37. 35. 34. 36. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 8.5 29.0 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932023 INVEST 06/19/23 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 26.2 45.1 to 6.7 0.49 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 27.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.17 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.66 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.9 to -3.0 0.43 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 123.7 27.0 to 144.1 0.83 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 33.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.29 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 69.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.85 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 4.1 109.3 to 0.0 0.96 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.5% 6.7% 3.8% 1.8% 0.7% 3.1% 3.6% 5.5% Bayesian: 0.5% 4.7% 2.3% 0.1% 0.3% 0.8% 0.5% 0.0% Consensus: 1.4% 3.8% 2.0% 0.7% 0.3% 1.3% 1.4% 1.9% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL932023 INVEST 06/19/2023 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 21 22 24 26 30 34 38 46 52 57 61 60 57 55 54 56 18HR AGO 20 19 20 22 24 28 32 36 44 50 55 59 58 55 53 52 54 12HR AGO 20 17 16 18 20 24 28 32 40 46 51 55 54 51 49 48 50 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT