* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL932023 06/20/23 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 32 35 38 44 51 56 62 67 67 64 62 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 25 29 32 35 38 44 51 56 62 67 67 64 62 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 25 27 29 31 32 37 41 46 52 59 64 65 65 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 13 14 11 9 11 15 12 9 5 5 18 23 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 3 3 3 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 21 28 46 61 48 58 59 60 37 286 276 290 287 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.6 28.4 28.1 27.9 27.9 28.2 27.5 27.7 27.8 27.4 28.1 28.5 28.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 146 143 139 136 136 140 131 133 135 130 140 146 146 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.5 -53.2 -53.5 -53.5 -53.2 -53.4 -53.1 -53.3 -53.0 -53.6 -53.5 -53.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 5 5 5 5 6 7 7 7 7 8 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 75 72 70 69 69 70 69 62 63 61 61 62 66 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 13 13 13 14 16 15 15 15 13 11 11 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 24 13 3 -2 -10 -12 -7 -8 -10 -19 -27 -39 -52 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 42 41 51 42 1 -8 -22 -21 -25 0 39 50 50 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -6 -7 -3 0 1 0 0 -2 -4 0 3 6 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1577 1558 1540 1508 1488 1429 1324 1151 992 925 966 742 554 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 8.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 31.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 12 12 12 12 12 12 13 13 14 17 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 31 22 16 15 20 28 12 19 20 15 38 33 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 505 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 18.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 16. 27. 36. 46. 53. 58. 61. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 1. -2. -3. -3. -7. -11. -17. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. -0. -2. -2. -5. -10. -12. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 10. 13. 19. 26. 31. 37. 42. 42. 39. 37. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 8.6 31.4 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932023 INVEST 06/20/23 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 4.3 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 23.1 45.1 to 6.7 0.57 2.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 20.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.13 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.89 2.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.9 to -3.0 0.54 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 115.0 27.0 to 144.1 0.75 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 35.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.30 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 96.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.83 1.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.9 109.3 to 0.0 0.98 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.6% 18.0% 12.2% 7.8% 0.0% 0.0% 11.6% 0.0% Logistic: 9.1% 29.9% 20.7% 12.7% 7.2% 15.2% 10.8% 14.3% Bayesian: 1.0% 14.6% 4.8% 0.2% 0.3% 1.9% 5.5% 1.4% Consensus: 4.9% 20.8% 12.6% 6.9% 2.5% 5.7% 9.3% 5.2% DTOPS: 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL932023 INVEST 06/20/2023 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 29 32 35 38 44 51 56 62 67 67 64 62 DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 25 24 27 30 33 39 46 51 57 62 62 59 57 DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 25 22 21 24 27 33 40 45 51 56 56 53 51 DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 18 24 31 36 42 47 47 44 42 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT