* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL932023 06/20/23 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 32 35 39 44 48 55 59 60 61 56 58 56 57 57 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 32 35 39 44 48 55 59 60 61 56 58 56 57 57 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 28 30 31 34 37 41 46 52 57 58 57 56 54 54 54 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 16 13 14 18 18 12 4 7 9 16 23 27 21 25 31 38 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 1 -2 -5 -3 0 2 -1 -3 1 2 0 4 1 -1 -3 SHEAR DIR 43 46 53 49 53 82 83 25 350 294 291 272 276 258 277 298 326 SST (C) 28.2 27.8 27.6 28.0 28.3 27.8 28.0 27.9 27.7 28.0 28.3 28.4 28.2 28.3 28.5 28.5 28.4 POT. INT. (KT) 140 135 133 138 142 135 137 136 134 138 143 144 141 142 144 142 139 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.3 -53.5 -53.6 -53.3 -53.3 -53.4 -53.4 -53.6 -53.4 -53.9 -54.0 -54.4 -54.6 -55.2 -55.2 -55.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 4 5 5 5 5 6 6 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 7 7 7 700-500 MB RH 72 70 69 69 69 68 64 60 59 59 61 65 66 64 64 60 61 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 10 10 12 12 12 11 11 10 9 8 6 6 4 4 3 850 MB ENV VOR 13 2 -5 -14 -15 -4 2 -4 -6 -20 -37 -45 -55 -49 -59 -51 -62 200 MB DIV 41 30 25 5 -3 -32 -52 -57 -52 0 41 70 46 79 23 -5 8 700-850 TADV -4 -3 1 1 0 0 -3 -5 -2 0 4 9 14 12 5 -10 -5 LAND (KM) 1540 1498 1468 1439 1424 1352 1146 979 879 857 767 596 514 482 652 769 765 LAT (DEG N) 9.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 32.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 13 13 12 12 12 12 12 14 15 14 13 13 10 6 4 HEAT CONTENT 18 12 13 24 30 15 21 26 15 50 33 27 23 31 27 22 22 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 540 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 8.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 8. 16. 27. 36. 45. 53. 57. 61. 62. 60. 60. 58. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -12. -15. -20. -22. -22. -24. -27. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 2. 3. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -4. -4. -6. -9. -12. -16. -17. -20. -20. -21. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 10. 14. 19. 23. 30. 34. 35. 36. 31. 33. 31. 32. 32. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 9.0 32.8 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932023 INVEST 06/20/23 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 4.1 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 22.8 45.1 to 6.7 0.58 1.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 19.4 0.0 to 161.7 0.12 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.71 1.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.9 to -3.0 0.54 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 112.5 27.0 to 144.1 0.73 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 19.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.23 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 94.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.83 1.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.3% 16.2% 11.0% 7.1% 0.0% 0.0% 11.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.2% 9.3% 5.7% 2.0% 0.7% 3.3% 3.0% 4.0% Bayesian: 0.6% 6.0% 2.5% 0.1% 0.1% 0.6% 0.6% 0.4% Consensus: 2.4% 10.5% 6.4% 3.0% 0.3% 1.3% 4.9% 1.5% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL932023 INVEST 06/20/2023 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 27 29 32 35 39 44 48 55 59 60 61 56 58 56 57 57 18HR AGO 25 24 26 29 32 36 41 45 52 56 57 58 53 55 53 54 54 12HR AGO 25 22 21 24 27 31 36 40 47 51 52 53 48 50 48 49 49 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 18 22 27 31 38 42 43 44 39 41 39 40 40 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT