* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BRET AL032023 06/20/23 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 43 46 48 51 52 50 48 48 45 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 40 43 46 48 51 52 50 48 48 45 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 40 42 44 45 46 46 45 43 39 37 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 7 5 5 5 3 17 20 25 21 28 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 9 11 14 15 9 6 4 -3 -6 -7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 249 243 271 298 334 273 272 266 320 325 348 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.4 27.8 28.3 28.3 28.5 28.8 28.8 28.9 28.9 28.7 28.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 131 135 142 142 145 150 150 152 152 149 145 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.3 -53.5 -53.2 -52.7 -53.0 -53.1 -53.4 -53.4 -53.2 -53.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 8 8 8 9 9 10 9 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 56 55 54 52 51 53 52 56 58 60 60 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 16 16 16 16 17 15 14 12 11 9 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 31 22 6 -4 -4 -7 1 16 26 45 57 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 80 116 113 53 22 -7 -25 -2 -1 17 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -4 -6 -3 -1 -3 -8 -6 -9 -3 -3 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 922 860 823 800 663 372 92 114 379 278 226 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 12.1 12.3 12.5 12.8 13.0 13.5 13.8 14.1 14.3 14.4 14.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 47.9 49.3 50.7 52.0 53.3 56.0 58.9 62.1 65.3 68.8 72.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 15 14 13 13 13 14 15 16 16 17 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 14 40 59 45 48 37 36 46 40 56 50 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 17 CX,CY: -16/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 712 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 69.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 19.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 7. 13. 20. 27. 34. 40. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. -2. -6. -13. -21. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -7. -5. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -0. -2. -5. -9. -11. -16. -21. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 1. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 8. 11. 12. 10. 8. 8. 5. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 12.1 47.9 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL032023 BRET 06/20/23 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 4.3 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 25.1 45.1 to 6.7 0.52 1.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 41.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.25 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.58 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.47 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.9 to -3.0 0.40 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 99.1 27.0 to 144.1 0.62 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 76.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.49 0.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 237.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.68 0.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.3 109.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.0% 17.6% 11.8% 8.9% 6.7% 10.7% 11.3% 12.7% Logistic: 4.8% 17.0% 8.8% 5.8% 3.0% 5.0% 2.4% 2.4% Bayesian: 1.3% 8.2% 3.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.8% 4.1% 0.5% Consensus: 3.7% 14.2% 7.9% 5.0% 3.3% 5.5% 5.9% 5.2% DTOPS: 4.0% 5.0% 3.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL032023 BRET 06/20/23 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL032023 BRET 06/20/2023 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 43 46 48 51 52 50 48 48 45 40 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 40 39 42 44 47 48 46 44 44 41 36 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 40 37 36 38 41 42 40 38 38 35 30 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 33 34 32 30 30 27 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT