* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BRET AL032023 06/21/23 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 48 52 56 57 57 56 54 53 51 49 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 45 48 52 56 57 57 56 54 53 51 49 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 45 48 51 53 54 53 51 49 46 43 42 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 7 6 4 2 7 17 21 24 18 23 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 12 12 14 13 9 3 3 -3 -2 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 234 251 311 266 254 280 256 287 330 327 328 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.8 28.3 28.3 28.6 28.8 28.7 29.0 28.9 28.5 28.5 28.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 136 142 142 146 150 148 154 153 147 147 148 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.4 -53.0 -52.7 -52.7 -53.2 -53.1 -53.4 -53.0 -53.2 -52.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 8 10 9 10 9 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 53 54 51 52 52 53 51 54 56 57 56 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 16 16 16 17 17 16 14 13 11 9 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 23 6 -1 1 3 -1 9 24 41 57 74 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 123 125 76 47 13 -17 -25 -26 20 23 -9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -4 -3 -1 -1 -3 -5 -7 -4 -5 -2 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 860 832 771 635 501 230 46 287 363 250 372 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 12.4 12.7 12.9 13.2 13.4 13.8 14.2 14.4 14.6 14.7 14.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 49.5 50.9 52.3 53.5 54.8 57.4 60.5 63.9 67.7 71.4 74.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 15 14 13 12 13 14 16 17 18 17 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 45 56 44 48 51 29 55 38 42 52 45 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 16 CX,CY: -14/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 679 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 66.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 20.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 12. 19. 25. 31. 36. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 3. 3. 3. 2. -2. -6. -11. -17. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -8. -7. -5. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 0. -0. -2. -4. -7. -11. -15. -20. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 1. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 11. 12. 12. 11. 9. 8. 6. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 12.4 49.5 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL032023 BRET 06/21/23 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 4.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 26.5 45.1 to 6.7 0.48 1.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 48.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.30 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.55 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.60 1.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.3 2.9 to -3.0 0.27 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 98.2 27.0 to 144.1 0.61 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 76.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.49 0.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 274.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.64 0.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 2.6 109.3 to 0.0 0.98 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.1% 20.1% 12.4% 9.4% 7.1% 10.9% 11.8% 12.8% Logistic: 4.4% 11.1% 5.5% 4.0% 1.7% 4.3% 2.0% 1.6% Bayesian: 4.3% 7.3% 3.4% 0.3% 0.1% 1.7% 5.7% 0.4% Consensus: 4.9% 12.8% 7.1% 4.6% 2.9% 5.6% 6.5% 4.9% DTOPS: 5.0% 11.0% 7.0% 4.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL032023 BRET 06/21/23 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL032023 BRET 06/21/2023 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 48 52 56 57 57 56 54 53 51 49 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 45 44 48 52 53 53 52 50 49 47 45 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 45 42 41 45 46 46 45 43 42 40 38 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 36 36 35 33 32 30 28 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT