* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL932023 06/21/23 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 29 32 38 45 52 59 60 61 60 61 60 60 62 65 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 29 32 38 45 52 59 60 61 60 61 60 60 62 65 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 26 27 28 32 36 41 46 50 51 50 50 48 48 51 54 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 17 15 14 9 6 10 10 13 16 25 18 23 20 25 25 31 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -7 -6 -6 -3 0 -1 -4 -1 3 5 4 5 0 -2 -6 -2 SHEAR DIR 69 65 73 78 63 43 325 314 283 286 274 272 258 286 306 316 318 SST (C) 27.9 28.2 27.9 27.5 27.5 27.9 27.8 27.8 28.3 28.8 28.6 28.6 28.7 28.3 28.5 28.6 28.4 POT. INT. (KT) 137 140 136 131 131 136 135 135 143 150 147 147 148 141 143 144 140 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.1 -53.0 -53.2 -53.3 -53.0 -53.1 -53.2 -53.7 -53.7 -54.1 -54.2 -54.0 -54.3 -54.5 -55.0 -55.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.2 -0.3 -0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 700-500 MB RH 70 68 67 64 63 59 59 60 62 64 66 63 58 52 48 47 53 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 11 10 8 8 6 6 6 5 850 MB ENV VOR -1 3 13 12 10 2 0 -9 -14 -18 -27 -32 -27 -35 -40 -38 -35 200 MB DIV -18 -11 -25 -35 -46 -27 -51 -12 35 56 66 37 15 -8 1 16 25 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -2 0 0 -4 -6 -2 0 0 10 11 1 5 -2 -2 -5 LAND (KM) 1479 1471 1475 1403 1289 1066 918 822 825 559 415 278 213 335 465 605 713 LAT (DEG N) 10.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 36.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 12 12 12 12 13 13 13 15 14 14 13 12 10 9 7 5 HEAT CONTENT 27 33 21 13 13 27 16 37 44 50 22 35 33 27 29 39 21 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 459 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 34.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 16. 26. 35. 44. 51. 55. 58. 59. 57. 57. 55. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 1. -1. -6. -12. -15. -18. -19. -19. -21. -23. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -5. -7. -11. -12. -15. -17. -18. -19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -4. -3. -3. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 7. 13. 20. 27. 34. 35. 36. 35. 36. 35. 35. 37. 40. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 10.0 36.5 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932023 INVEST 06/21/23 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 16.3 45.1 to 6.7 0.75 2.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 21.4 0.0 to 161.7 0.13 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.51 1.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.9 to -3.0 0.54 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 110.0 27.0 to 144.1 0.71 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : -27.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.02 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 98.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.82 1.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.3% 14.0% 9.6% 6.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.8% 4.9% 2.7% 0.5% 0.2% 2.7% 4.3% 3.0% Bayesian: 0.3% 7.4% 1.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% Consensus: 1.5% 8.8% 4.4% 2.4% 0.1% 1.0% 1.5% 1.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL932023 INVEST 06/21/23 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL932023 INVEST 06/21/2023 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 28 29 32 38 45 52 59 60 61 60 61 60 60 62 65 18HR AGO 25 24 26 27 30 36 43 50 57 58 59 58 59 58 58 60 63 12HR AGO 25 22 21 22 25 31 38 45 52 53 54 53 54 53 53 55 58 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 18 24 31 38 45 46 47 46 47 46 46 48 51 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT